Combined measurements of Higgs boson production and decay rates are reported, representing the most comprehensive study performed by the CMS Collaboration to date. The included analyses use proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS experiment at s√ = 13 TeV from 2016 to 2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1. The statistical combination is based on analyses that measure the following decay channels: H → γγ, H → ZZ, H → WW, H → ττ, H → bb, H → μμ, and H → Zγ → ℓℓγ (ℓ = e,μ). Information in the events from each decay channel is used to target multiple Higgs boson production processes. Searches for invisible Higgs boson decays are also considered, as well as an analysis that measures off-shell Higgs boson production in the H → ZZ → 4ℓ decay channel.
The best fit inclusive signal yield is measured to be 1.014 +0.055 −0.053 times the standard model expectation, for a Higgs boson mass of 125.38 GeV.
Measurements in kinematic regions defined by the simplified template cross section framework are also provided, as well as interpretations in the coupling modifier and standard model effective field theory frameworks. The coupling modifier interpretation is further used to place constraints on various two-Higgs-doublet models. The results show good compatibility with the standard model predictions for the majority of the measured parameters.
The breakdown of the sources of uncertainty are notable too:
The theoretical uncertainty is the biggest contributor to the total uncertainty. More specifically:The largest component of the uncertainty originates from the theoretical uncertainty in the signal yield normalization (∆µincl/µincl = 3.6%). The contributions from the experimental uncertainties are shared amongst the different sources of uncertainty, with no single dominant contribution.
The SM predictions for the Higgs boson production and decay rates depend on the mass of the Higgs boson mH. For all measurements in this paper, the mass is fixed at mH = 125.38 GeV. This was the most precise measurement of m(H) (± 0.14 GeV) by the CMS Collaboration at the time that the analyses entering the combination were performed. Since then, a more precise measurement of m(H) = 125.08 ± 0.12 GeV has been performed by CMS in the H → ZZ → 4ℓ channel. The ATLAS Collaboration also performed a more precise measurement of m(H) = 125.11 ± 0.11 GeV, combining the H → ZZ → 4ℓ and H → γγ channels. The small difference in m(H) between these values has a negligible effect on the results in this paper.
So, any hope from the abstract that this experiment would also shed light on the Higgs boson mass has been dashed.
The final point in the abstract about only a majority of the results being compatible with the Standard Model is explained as follows:
In contrast to the inclusive measurement, the per production process measurement shows a small tension with the SM, with a compatibility p-value of pSM = 0.02. This tension is mostly driven by µtH, for which an excess of 2.2 standard deviations above the SM expectation is seen. The µWH and µZH parameters are also measured to be larger than the SM expectations by approximately two standard deviations. The 68% CL intervals range from ±7.5% for µggH to ±39% for µtH, relative to their best fit values.
The per decay channel measurement shows a better compatibility with the SM (pSM = 0.33). The largest deviations are observed in the µττ and µZγ parameters. However, these are still compatible with the SM expectations within the 95% CL intervals. The µγγ, µZZ, µWW, and µττ parameters are all measured with excellent precision, with 68% CL intervals of approximately ±10% relative to their best fit values. The µbb parameter is measured with a 68% CL interval of ±15%. This represents a significant improvement compared to the previous combined Higgs boson measurement by the CMS Collaboration (±21%), because of the newly added H → bb channels and updated H → bb input analyses. The parameters for the rarer decay channels, µµµ and µZγ, are measured with 68% CL intervals of ±37% and ±39%, respectively, relative to their best fit values.
The biggest deviations in particular channels are still only slight tensions and are expected due to the look elsewhere effect.
The constraints on the Higgs boson self-coupling relative to the Standard Model expected value, kappa(A), which is a quite hard to measure property of the Higgs boson, are also very consistent with the Standard Model expectation, as shown in the chart below (with kappa(F) and kappa(V) reflecting scenarios where there are different couplings to fermions and vector bosons).


