LambdaCMD Still Broken

No matter how much you fuss with the LambdaCDM based simulations, they generically predict the wrong number and type of satellite galaxies (related study here) producing a 2.4 sigma tension:

The kinematic approach yields a larger diversity in central dark matter densities than expected from the CDM population, as inferred from the stellar-to-halo mass relation, with compact ultra-faints appearing overdense and larger systems appearing underdense. For the ultra-faint dwarfs with at least 10 stars with spectroscopic measurements, this discrepancy persists at the ~2.4σ level across all considered systematic variations on the semi-analytic modeling.

The Hubble tension remains unresolved, which implies that the cosmological constant, Lamba, of the LambdaCDM model, isn't actually constant. And at galaxy scales, CDM has lots of problems:

Small-scale cosmic structure provides a powerful test of the fundamental nature of dark matter (DM). A wide range of DM models impact matter clustering on small scales, including warm, fuzzy, and (self-)interacting DM. In these scenarios, DM physics such as free-streaming, wave interference, and self/Standard Model interactions alter the abundance and internal structure of DM halos. Cosmological and astrophysical probes of nonlinear structure---including dwarf galaxies, strong lensing, the Lyman-α forest, stellar streams, and high-redshift galaxies---are therefore sensitive to these effects. 

Here, we review DM constraints provided by small-scale structure, focusing on observables that probe scales smaller than ∼1 Mpc, which define the frontier of current measurements. We summarize how these constraints have been translated to limits on microphysical DM models, and we discuss key modeling uncertainties and observational systematics. Finally, we highlight the growing importance of probe combination and simulation-based inference for this field, and we overview upcoming observational facilities that will sharpen small-scale structure tests of DM physics.

Ethan O. Nadler, Keir K. Rogers, Alex Drlica-Wagner, "Dark Matter Constraints from Small-Scale Cosmic Structure" arXiv:2607.28564 (July 30, 2026) (73 pages, submitted to Reviews of Modern Physics). The conclusion of this article states:

Over the past two decades, measurements of small scale structure have evolved from potential challenges to the CDM paradigm into a powerful probe of the fundamental nature of DM. For example, the combination of increasingly complete observations of faint galaxies and stellar streams, advances in strong lensing, and the development of flexible, empirically-grounded modeling frameworks has enabled robust inference that connects DM microphysics to data at the small-scale frontier. As a result, these probes now provide among the most stringent constraints on many DM properties, complementing LSS analyses and terrestrial experiments. At the same time, our understanding of small-scale cosmology remains incomplete, and new tensions have emerged on highly nonlinear scales, many of which are related to the inner densities of low-mass subhalos. 

Small-scale structure will likely play a central role in an eventual DM discovery. In the presence of a terrestrial detection, cosmological confirmation will be essential to show that newly-detected particles are the cosmological DM, and small-scale structure provides a uniquely sensitive avenue to achieve this goal. Conversely, evidence for departures from collisionless CDM inferred from nonlinear structure would offer critical guidance for direct detection and collider experiments by narrowing the viable particle DM parameter space. Thus, small-scale structure acts as a bridge between astrophysics and particle physics, creating interdisciplinary opportunities at the interface of astrophysical data and particle theory. 

A key milestone in the coming years will be the detection (or robust exclusion) of DM halos with masses below the galaxy formation threshold. Establishing the existence of completely dark halos would open a new observational window into structure formation and enable the most incisive small-scale structure tests of DM physics to date. On the other hand, an absence of such systems would constitute strong evidence against CDM and for DM physics beyond gravity. Either outcome will mark an important transition in our understanding of DM. 

Realizing the potential of upcoming small-scale structure data will require both observational and theoretical advances. On the observational side, next-generation facilities will dramatically increase the statistical power of current probes while enabling the first DM constraints from new data. On the theoretical side, progress will depend on accurately modeling nonlinear structure across DM scenarios, robustly marginalizing over the impact of baryonic physics on small-scale structure, and combining data from multiple probes in a unified framework. Together, these developments point toward a future in which small-scale structure enables precision tests—and perhaps discovery—of fundamental DM physics.

This article, however, is far too tentative and unwilling to drawn any conclusions from an already abundant supply of observations in its exceptionally long review of the literature and prospects for future study.

While the Hubble tension has received more widespread mainstream attention, the galaxy and galaxy cluster scale issues with cold dark matter particles is, IMHO, the far greater challenge to the LambdaCDM model. In measure after measure, it fails irremediably.