Colorado is currently in a 1200 year drought (the worst since 800 CE). But, in the 100s CE, around the time that the Roman Empire was at its peak and Christianity was in a formative period, there was a far more severe drought than the current one in the Colorado River basin or the one experienced around 800 CE.
The drought of ca. 800 CE was probably a decisive factor in the collapse of the Anasazi a.k.a. Ancient Puebloan culture. It predated by about two centuries the arrival of the Navajo and Apache people in the American Southwest from what is now Southern central Canada. It also coincided with the arrival of the Thule ancestors of the modern Eskimo people of Alaska and Canada in Western Alaska from Siberia which was a major push factor behind the southern mass migration of the ancestors of the Navajo and Apache people.
The Colorado River is in an extremely severe drought and has been for the last 22 years. To better understand this drought, researchers looked at the drought history within the Colorado River Basin. Previous studies have gone back 1,200 years, but this paper goes back 2,000 years. The findings, using paleo hydrology, show that there was an even more severe drought in the Colorado River Basin in the second century. . . . . The research finds that compared to the current 22-year drought in the Colorado River, with only 84% of the average water flow, the water flow during a 22-year period in the second century was much lower, just 68% of the average water flow.
From Science Daily citing Subhrendu Gangopadhyay, et al., 'Tree Rings Reveal Unmatched 2nd Century Drought in the Colorado River Basin." 49(11) Geophysical Research Letters (June 9, 2022). DOI: 10.1029/2022GL098781
The abstract and other prefatory materials from the paper are as follows:
Abstract
The ongoing 22-year drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) has been extremely severe, even in the context of the longest available tree-ring reconstruction of annual flow at Lees Ferry, Arizona, dating back to 762 CE.
While many southwestern drought assessments have been limited to the past 1,200 years, longer paleorecords of moisture variability do exist for the UCRB. Here, gridded drought-atlas data in the UCRB domain along with naturalized streamflow data from the instrumental period (1906–2021) are used in a K-nearest neighbor nonparametric algorithm to develop a streamflow reconstruction for the Lees Ferry gage starting in 1 CE.
The reconstruction reveals a second-century drought unmatched in severity by the current drought or by well-documented medieval period droughts in the UCRB. Although data are sparse, analysis of individual long tree-ring records and other paleoclimatic data also support the occurrence of an exceptional second-century drought.
Key Points
A new tree-ring based ensemble streamflow reconstruction spanning the last two millennia was developed for the Colorado River
The new reconstruction reveals a second-century drought unmatched in severity by any past droughts in the Upper Colorado River Basin
The ongoing 22-year period of low Colorado River streamflow is a rare event, but is not the most severe drought in the past 2,000 years
Plain Language Summary
The Colorado River drought we currently are experiencing is severe in the context of the 116-year gage record (1906–2021), but how severe is it in a long-term context?
Existing tree-ring based reconstructions of Colorado River streamflow have suggested that the 22-year period 2000–2021 could be the worst drought in the southwestern United States in 1,200 years. The purpose of this study is to extend the Colorado River reconstruction back 2,000 years and to evaluate the current drought in a long-term context.
We find that an even more extreme drought occurred and persisted over much of the second century. Data are sparse this far back in time, but evidence from both tree-ring data and paleoclimate data from lakes, bogs, and caves supports the existence and severity of this drought in the context of the last two millennia.
Additional work is needed to learn more about this drought and its causes, but we now know that drought more persistent than even the well-documented medieval period droughts occurred in the past, expanding our understanding of the range of natural climate variability.
The body text goes on to explain that:Other paleoclimatic data provide additional support for second-century drought (e.g., Routson et al., 2021; Shuman et al., 2018). A collection of 37 non-tree-ring hydroclimate records (e.g., pollen, diatoms, etc.) was assessed for evidence of the second-century drought. Resolution and age control limit these records' ability to faithfully record events that occurred within multidecadal timescales. However, non-tree-ring hydroclimate records are useful because they are not limited by detrending and short segment lengths inherent in tree-ring chronologies (Cook et al., 1995). This collection of lower resolution records shows dry conditions occurred during the second century over a spatial domain broadly consistent with the tree-ring based evidence. Furthermore, these records show a gradual pattern toward wetter conditions over the last two millennia, with the driest conditions occurring in the early portion of the first millennium, coincident with the second century. This period also coincides with the higher frequency of longer and more severe droughts over the first millennium in the tree-ring records.
Local Cultural and Historical Context
In part due to my thinner understanding of North American prehistory, some of which is my own fault, and some of which is due to a lack of a good comprehensive chronology in academia itself, I struggle to recall anything terribly significant or notable going on in the American Southwest in that time period, that would overshadow the well known climate impacts of the less severe drought that was experienced six or seven centuries later.
There isn't a lot that is known about these people, but what is known is summarized as follows:
Communities
The primary dwellings of this era were round or circular pit-houses that were built on open land and partially below the ground surface. The entrance to the house faced east or south. Logs and rocks were often used for the dwellings foundation. The building materials for the walls could include stacked logs, jacal or poles and brush. In the center of the dwelling was a fire pit.
Some early people built their dwellings within the natural protection of rock shelters, especially during the beginning of this period.
Agriculture
The Basketmaker II people raised maize and squash, the first people of the northern American southwest to do so, which required them to be located near sources of water and good soil. Carbon isotope analysis of bones of Archaic people compared to Basketmakers indicates that the Basketmakers' diet was rich in maize.
Manos and metates were used to grind maize and other foods. Food was stored below ground in storage cists, often lined with slabs of stone.
Material goods
Excavated items from this period include:
* good quality, tightly woven baskets
* woven yucca bags, sandals and blankets
* robes and blankets made of feather and fur
* oval-shaped cradles
* stone pipes
About AD 200, the middle of this period, there was some experimentation with a crude form of brown pottery.
There is a two centuries gap in the prehistory of the American Southwest that includes the time period of this megadrought.
The archaeological record would be consistent with the hypothesis that human civilization basically ended as a result of this megadrought in the American Southwest starting about 0 CE and restarted again with Hohokam culture around 200 CE when the Colorado River basin had recovered again. Or, it could simply be that the archaeological record as filtered through to me through secondary sources is just incomplete or inaccurate.
This excerpt from the Wikipedia Hohokam article describes the early phase of this culture and suggests that a 200 CE date may be a bit early for it: Pioneer/Formative period (AD 1–750)
As farmers of corn and beans, early Hohokam founded a series of small villages along the middle Gila River. The communities were located near arable land, and dry farming was common early in this period. Water wells, usually less than 10 feet (3 m) deep, were dug for domestic water supplies. Early Hohokam homes were built of branches that were bent, covered with twigs or reeds and heavily applied mud, and other available materials.
Crop, agricultural skill, and cultural refinements increased between AD 300 and 500 as the Hohokam acquired a new group of cultivated plants, presumably from trade with peoples in the area of modern Mexico. These acquisitions included cotton, tepary bean, sieva and jack beans, cushaw and warty squash, and southwestern pigweed. Agave species had been gathered for food and fiber for thousands of years by southwestern peoples, and around 600, the Hohokam began cultivating agave, particularly Agave murpheyi ("Hohokam agave"), on large areas of rocky, dry ground. Agave became a major food source for the Hohokam to augment the food grown in irrigated areas.
Engineering improved access to river water and the inhabitants excavated canals for irrigation.
Ceramics appeared shortly before AD 300, with pots of unembellished brown used for storage and cooking, and as containers for cremated remains. Materials produced for ritual use included fired clay human and animal figures and incense burners.