Showing posts with label mathematics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mathematics. Show all posts

Thursday, August 27, 2026

Simple Math Made Hard

It is worth noting that none of the complexities below involve anything more sophisticated that pre-calculus study and logs and trig functions, and perhaps the early part of a first course in calculus, both of which are often taught at the high school level. 

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Proof By Counterexample

Artificial intelligence programs have recent disproved some famous mathematical conjectures by finding counter-examples.

Most mathematical proofs are deductive. They reason, point by point, from axiom, to lemma, to theorem, in a straight forward, X implies Y, Y implies Z, fashion.

Some mathematical proofs, arguably more elegant ones, are inductive. A common structure of an inductive proof is roughly speaking: imagine that this theorem is not true. Then, X could imply Y, and if X implies Y, then Z must have a certain value, but Z can have a different value. Therefore, the theorem must be true.

Another form of inductive proof shows that if proposition X is true that proposition X+1 is true by deduction. Then, it shows that proposition X is true in a separate proof for a particular early case of X (and possibly by other separate proofs for several other early cases of X that come before the one you use to validate the rest of the cases). Thus, for the early case or cases, and all subsequent cases, the conjecture must be true.

Many theorems are also almost always true, but have some "trivial" exceptions, typically for things like values of variables that are equal to zero or one, or for the first few iterations of a series, with the theorem holding only after those iterations.

One of the most elegant and efficient ways to prove that a theorem is not true is with a counterexample. The theorem may be true for every situation or set of values considered, sometimes millions of them, but it takes only one counterexample to show that the theorem is not always true, and hence, is false.

For example, in the case of Fermat's Last Theorem, before it was prove to be true, one could have imagined a counterexample disproving it with just three whole numbers that defied it's rule, that could be stated in a line or two, even thought it has been numerically tested for millions of numbers and in the end, it it would take a proof hundreds of pages long to rigorously establish that it was true deductively.

Disproof of longstanding mathematical conjectures by counterexample is rare, but it has happened, even in the pre-computer era, for theorems that held in vast numbers of examples, with no flaws identified for many decades by extremely smart people trying hard to do so.

I haven't very exactly described this kind of conjecture, although I'm sure that a clever mathematician could do so, but let's assume for sake of argument that this kind of conjecture is susceptible to precise definition, and call this kind of conjecture a "near miss conjecture". 

Disproof of a near miss conjecture by counterexample, however, in and of itself, while it is efficient, indeed elegant, is also dissatisfying in the case of conjectures the hold true for so many examples and which defied logical reasoning to show that they are true or false for long periods of active efforts to do so. Disproof of a near miss conjecture by counterexample is dissatisfying because, while they do show that the conjecture is not true, they don't tell why the conjecture doesn't always work, even though it does work for so many cases and logically feels like it should work in every case.

Maybe the near miss conjecture is true for all but a finite set of counterexamples that is well defined, and can be used to modify the conjecture in much the same way as many theorems are modified to exclude a handful of trivial exceptions.

Maybe the near miss conjecture could be true if some other assumption so obvious that even smart people don't recognize that it needs to be made, add it. 

For example, a conjecture about the probability of heads or tails in a coin toss may need to be supplemented with the assumption that the coin doesn't land on its side and thus doesn't generate either a heads or a tails result, rescuing the near miss conjecture, which remains very useful, despite not being perfectly true without the added assumption.

Knowing why a disproof by counterexample is possible adds insight that the counterexample itself often does not.

Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Surfaceology


A new technique called "surfaceology" (described in the linked Quanta magazine article) provides a profoundly more efficient method than the path integrals implied by Feynman diagrams to calculate the probability of Standard Model interactions. 

It is also useful in doing calculations in "double copy" approaches to quantum gravity, in which on does a calculation in QCD and "squares" it, to get an answer for a parallel problem in quantum gravity. 

Surfaceology flows from the same line of reasoning as the amplituhedron of theoretical physics superstar Nima Arkani-Hamed (which only works for supersymmetry theories) and was devised by a junior member of his research group, Carolina Figueiredo, in 2022, with a pair of preprints (here and here) first published in September of 2023. But, it works for real Standard Model particles and not just for simplified theoretical physics models.

Further developments in the winter of 2023-2024 described outcomes that were considered with many calculations in Feynman diagram calculations that eventually revealed that these outcomes were effectively impossible called "hidden zeros." Figueiredo and Arkani-Hamed, along with Qu Cao, Jin Dong, and Song He, posted theses findings in a series of preprints.

More efficient calculations that this method facilitates could turn many particle physics and quantum gravity problems that were theoretically possible to calculate, but as a practical matter, impossible to numerically work out, into practically solvable problems, and can very difficult calculations vastly easier to solve.

Hat tip to 4Gravitons.
(opens a new tab

Thursday, April 9, 2026

Is The Newtonian Expectation For Galaxy Rotation Curves Modeled Incorrectly?

The conclusion of this paper is a very big deal if true, and I don't dismiss it out of hand.

But given how well established and widely used the models it claims are grossly wrong are, this needs peer review and time for commentary papers in response to it in order to be taken seriously. I wouldn't be surprised if it contains some significant conceptual flaw.
The approximately flat outer parts of spiral galaxy rotation curves are commonly interpreted as evidence for a discrepancy between the observed baryonic mass and the dynamical mass inferred from the measured orbital velocities. In most standard analyses, this discrepancy is quantified using v2(R)=GM(<R)/R, which is exact only under spherical symmetry. However, spiral galaxies are flattened disk systems, for which mass exterior to the galactocentric radius under consideration can contribute non-negligibly to the gravitational field. 
We introduce the Lost and Found (LF) model, a geometrically consistent Newtonian framework based on direct full-disk gravitational integration and a parametrized representation of the disk surface density. In this approach, the gravitational field is computed without imposing spherical symmetry, and the disk mass distribution is represented by two exponential components with a smooth outer truncation. 
We apply the LF model to a heterogeneous sample of disk galaxies spanning a broad range of masses and radial extents. The model reproduces the main observed features of the rotation curves, including the inner rise and the approximately flat outer behavior, without explicitly invoking a dark matter halo or modifying Newtonian gravity. Across the sample, the LF-inferred mass scales nearly linearly with the conventional dynamical mass, with a characteristic reduction factor ηLF ~ 0.67. 
These results indicate that part of the inferred mass discrepancy may arise from the geometric treatment of gravitation in disk galaxies, and motivate a reassessment of mass inference in non-spherical systems.
Adolfo Santa Fe Dueñas, "Galactic Rotation Curves from Full-Disk Newtonian Gravity: The Lost and Found Model" arXiv:2604.06917 (April 8, 2026) (submitted to MNRAS).

Thursday, March 12, 2026

An Unreview

What makes this paper especially notable is not its content per se but the concept of an "unreview", which potentially has broad interdisciplinary applications.

Accreting white dwarfs (AWDs) are among the best natural laboratories for understanding disk accretion. Their proximity, brightness, and purely classical nature make them ideal systems in which to probe the fundamental physics that governs the transport of angular momentum, the generation of outflows, and the coupling between disks, magnetospheres, and accretors. Yet despite decades of study, many critical questions remain unresolved. 
In this ``unreview'', we therefore focus not on what is known, but on what is unknown. 
What drives viscosity and sustains accretion in largely neutral disks? How are powerful winds launched, and how do they feed back on the disk and binary evolution? Why do so many systems show persistent retrograde precession, and what drives bursts in magnetic AWDs? 
By identifying these open problems -- and suggesting ways to resolve them -- we aim to motivate new observational, numerical, and theoretical efforts that will advance our understanding of accretion physics across all mass scales, from white dwarfs to black holes.
Simone Scaringi, Christian Knigge, Domitilla de Martino, "Accreting White Dwarfs: An Unreview" arXiv:2603.10150 (March 10, 2026) (Accepted in Space Science Reviews).

Also notable is a paper demonstrating that a twenty times faster method of computing big data in cosmology is indistinguishable in its results from a more conventional method of doing so, despite the fact that the faster method isn't obviously theoretically rigorous and sound (because it uses linear rather than non-linear mathematical methods).

There is also a new paper replicating a result of a 2026 paper finding MOND-like effects in wide binaries using a modestly different analysis method.

Tuesday, February 24, 2026

The Higgs Boson Still Matches The Standard Model

The Standard Model Higgs Boson hypothesis continues to be a good fit to the data, this time, an inclusive measurement of all Higgs bosons produced in the LHC data of the CMS experiment over a three year period.
Combined measurements of Higgs boson production and decay rates are reported, representing the most comprehensive study performed by the CMS Collaboration to date. The included analyses use proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS experiment at s√ = 13 TeV from 2016 to 2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1. The statistical combination is based on analyses that measure the following decay channels: H → γγ, H → ZZ, H → WW, H → ττ, H → bb, H → μμ, and H → Zγ → ℓℓγ (ℓ = e,μ). Information in the events from each decay channel is used to target multiple Higgs boson production processes. Searches for invisible Higgs boson decays are also considered, as well as an analysis that measures off-shell Higgs boson production in the H → ZZ → 4ℓ decay channel. 
The best fit inclusive signal yield is measured to be 1.014 +0.055 −0.053 times the standard model expectation, for a Higgs boson mass of 125.38 GeV. 
Measurements in kinematic regions defined by the simplified template cross section framework are also provided, as well as interpretations in the coupling modifier and standard model effective field theory frameworks. The coupling modifier interpretation is further used to place constraints on various two-Higgs-doublet models. The results show good compatibility with the standard model predictions for the majority of the measured parameters.
CMS Collaboration, "Combined measurements and interpretations of Higgs boson production and decay in proton-proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV" arXiv:2602.18611 (February 20, 2026) (Submitted to Reports on Progress in Physics).

The result is about 0.2 sigma above the Standard Model expectation, which is very consistent with the result obtained and once again suggests that the uncertainties in the measurement (the average discrepancy from the expected results if the errors are accurately measured and Gaussian should be 1 sigma), in the interests of being conservative in estimating them, are overestimated. This is common in electroweak (as opposed to strong force) high energy physics experiments.

The breakdown of the sources of uncertainty are notable too:

The theoretical uncertainty is the biggest contributor to the total uncertainty. More specifically:
The largest component of the uncertainty originates from the theoretical uncertainty in the signal yield normalization (∆µincl/µincl = 3.6%). The contributions from the experimental uncertainties are shared amongst the different sources of uncertainty, with no single dominant contribution.
The statistical uncertainty (assuming that the uncertainty can correctly be modeled as Gaussian, i.e. a statistical normal distribution) is almost certainly spot on correct because establishing it is a mechanical process that involves few judgment calls. This means that any excess estimates of uncertainty in this experiment come from the theoretical and systemic experimental uncertainties.

A statement about the Higgs boson mass used in this analysis is found in the introduction, and doesn't represent any insights from the inclusive measurement which doesn't meaningfully distinguish between the Higgs boson mass assumed in the analysis and newer more precise measurements by the ATLAS and CMS experiments which are about 0.2% (i.e. 170-200 MeV) less massive.
The SM predictions for the Higgs boson production and decay rates depend on the mass of the Higgs boson mH. For all measurements in this paper, the mass is fixed at mH = 125.38 GeV. This was the most precise measurement of m(H) (± 0.14 GeV) by the CMS Collaboration at the time that the analyses entering the combination were performed. Since then, a more precise measurement of m(H) = 125.08 ± 0.12 GeV has been performed by CMS in the H → ZZ → 4ℓ channel. The ATLAS Collaboration also performed a more precise measurement of m(H) = 125.11 ± 0.11 GeV, combining the H → ZZ → 4ℓ and H → γγ channels. The small difference in m(H) between these values has a negligible effect on the results in this paper.

So, any hope from the abstract that this experiment would also shed light on the Higgs boson mass has been dashed. 

The final point in the abstract about only a majority of the results being compatible with the Standard Model is explained as follows:

In contrast to the inclusive measurement, the per production process measurement shows a small tension with the SM, with a compatibility p-value of pSM = 0.02. This tension is mostly driven by µtH, for which an excess of 2.2 standard deviations above the SM expectation is seen. The µWH and µZH parameters are also measured to be larger than the SM expectations by approximately two standard deviations. The 68% CL intervals range from ±7.5% for µggH to ±39% for µtH, relative to their best fit values. 

The per decay channel measurement shows a better compatibility with the SM (pSM = 0.33). The largest deviations are observed in the µττ and µZγ parameters. However, these are still compatible with the SM expectations within the 95% CL intervals. The µγγ, µZZ, µWW, and µττ parameters are all measured with excellent precision, with 68% CL intervals of approximately ±10% relative to their best fit values. The µbb parameter is measured with a 68% CL interval of ±15%. This represents a significant improvement compared to the previous combined Higgs boson measurement by the CMS Collaboration (±21%), because of the newly added H → bb channels and updated H → bb input analyses. The parameters for the rarer decay channels, µµµ and µZγ, are measured with 68% CL intervals of ±37% and ±39%, respectively, relative to their best fit values.

The biggest deviations in particular channels are still only slight tensions and are expected due to the look elsewhere effect. 

The constraints on the Higgs boson self-coupling relative to the Standard Model expected value, kappa(A), which is a quite hard to measure property of the Higgs boson, are also very consistent with the Standard Model expectation, as shown in the chart below (with kappa(F) and kappa(V) reflecting scenarios where there are different couplings to fermions and vector bosons).

Sunday, February 22, 2026

Quick Hits

* The Sumerians had different number words and symbols to count numbers of different kinds of things. So, for example, the word for five pieces of fruit would be different than the word for five logs.

* Egyptian pyramids were built as trapezoids and then cut down to pyramids with the left over rock used to make new pyramids.

* Reputedly, Emperor Basil II of the Byzantine Empire was cruel.

* The Anglo-Saxons kept slaves in the middle ages.

* According to Gerald of Wales ca. 1316 CE, at that time the Irish were predominantly herders.

* Harsh murder sentences for newborns killed or neglected in the throes of unattended child birth are still common today even though the death penalty is almost never sought now in these circumstances.


* The TYRP1 gene variant discovered in 2012, is the cause of blond hair in the Solomon Islands in Melanesia, which is a different gene than the one that causes blond hair in Europeans.

* Before 1480, India and Sri Lanka were nearly connected by a land bridge known as Adam’s Bridge.


* There were once oceans on Mars.
High-resolution orbital images of Mars' largest canyon reveal ancient river deltas, proving the Red Planet once held an ocean the size of Earth's Arctic.

New high-resolution imagery from the European Space Agency’s ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter has provided the most definitive evidence to date that Mars was once a blue planet. Researchers at the University of Bern identified distinct fan-shaped sediment deposits in the southeast Coprates Chasma region, part of the massive Valles Marineris canyon system. These structures, remarkably similar to river deltas on Earth, all sit at a consistent elevation between 3,650 and 3,750 meters. This geological alignment points to one unmistakable conclusion: the presence of an ancient coastline where rivers once emptied into a vast, stable sea approximately 3.37 billion years ago.

While previous theories about Martian oceans relied on lower-resolution data, this study offers direct geomorphological proof of a shoreline. The findings suggest that a massive body of water, comparable in size to Earth’s Arctic Ocean, once covered the entirety of Mars’ northern hemisphere. Though today these ancient deltas are buried beneath wind-sculpted dust and dunes, their distinctive shapes remain preserved. This discovery drastically alters our view of Martian history; the existence of a planet-wide water cycle and a stable ocean suggests that the conditions necessary for life were not isolated occurrences but a global phenomenon.

Source: Argadestya, P., et al. "Geomorphological and sedimentological evidence of a coastline in Southeast Coprates Chasma." npj Space Exploration (2026).


* There are social octopi that build homes for themselves off the coast of Australia.

* This very little bugger ,who is part of this clade of animals (and more specifically this one) is kind of cute in a Disney monsters way. They are the most heat-tolerant complex animal known to science after tardigrades (or water bears), which are able to survive temperatures over 150 °C. They were discovered in 1980 off the Galapagos islands.


When they grow up, they look like this (the "fur" is a symbiotic species of bacteria):


* A photograph of the February 19, 2026 solar eclipse in Antarctica (not AI).


* Nature can be amazing (also not AI).

* In West Texas, ca. 4500 BCE, hunter-gatherers used non-returnable boomerang sticks for small game and atlatl to throw their carefully crafted spears further for big game.

A cache of ancient weapons, more than 6,000 years old, has been uncovered in a remote rock shelter in West Texas, offering one of the clearest pictures yet of early life in North America.

The discovery was made at the San Esteban rock shelter in the Big Bend region, an area known for its dry climate and rugged desert landscape. That dryness turned out to be a gift to archaeologists. Items that would normally rot away wood, leather bindings, plant fibers remained intact for thousands of years. Inside the shelter, researchers found a carefully stored hunting kit dating to around 4,500 B.C., including wooden spear shafts wrapped in leather, stone projectile points, and parts of atlatls, the spear-throwing tools that dramatically increased a hunter’s range and power.

An atlatl works like a lever, giving a thrown spear greater speed and force. With it, hunters could strike animals from distances that would otherwise be impossible with a simple hand throw. Tests and prior studies show these tools could send projectiles well over 100 feet with deadly accuracy. The craftsmanship seen in the newly uncovered pieces shows careful shaping, balance, and planning. These were not rough survival tools; they were refined hunting systems built by people who deeply understood their environment.

Researchers also identified curved wooden throwing weapons often described as straight or non-returning boomerangs. Unlike the returning boomerangs many people picture today, these were designed to fly straight and hit small game with strong impact. Their presence adds another layer to what appears to have been a well-organized toolkit, likely stored together for repeated use.

The San Esteban site has a long history of human occupation stretching back thousands of years. Findings from this latest excavation reinforce the idea that the Big Bend region was not a temporary stop for wandering groups but a place where people lived, adapted, and developed sophisticated survival strategies. The tools show planning, skill, and an ability to work with available materials in smart, efficient ways.

Archaeologists involved in the project say the discovery helps rewrite outdated ideas about early North American societies. These communities were not primitive in the way older textbooks sometimes suggested. They engineered effective hunting technology, understood animal behavior, and created tools built to last.

As research continues, scientists hope to learn more about how these weapons were used, how they were stored, and what they reveal about daily life 6,000 years ago. For now, the dry rock shelter in West Texas has delivered something rare: a direct, tangible connection to hunters who once stood in the same desert landscape, preparing their tools for the next expedition.

Maize farmers in Peru’s Chincha Valley were fertilizing their crops with seabird poop as early as the year 1250 CE.

* According to this source:
Around 3,800 years ago, a magnitude-9.5 megaquake struck northern Chile's coast, creating the largest earthquake known in human history. The rupture extended roughly 620 miles along the fault line—longer than the devastating 1960 Valdivia earthquake—and generated tsunamis with waves reaching 66 feet that traveled 5,000 miles across the Pacific Ocean to New Zealand. Archaeologists discovered marine deposits, boulders, shells, and sea life displaced far inland in the Atacama Desert, along with toppled stone structures buried beneath tsunami sediment, all radiocarbon-dated to this single catastrophic event.

The disaster forced complete coastal abandonment. Communities that depended on the ocean for survival relocated inland, staying away from the coast for over 1,000 years—an extraordinary response that demonstrates the quake's devastating impact on human populations. Researchers now recognize this megathrust earthquake, caused when tectonic plates suddenly unlocked after building massive strain, as both the oldest discovered earthquake-tsunami disaster in the Southern Hemisphere and a critical warning for modern coastal populations across the Pacific.

* Every recorded earthquake worldwide, 2015 to 2025 (my source didn't cite a source).

 

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

More Evidence That The Standard Model Still Works

The ATLAS Paper

Once again, a search for beyond the Standard Model particles comes up empty and places strict limits on the parameter space of such particles. Also, the author list for this 27 page long paper is 17 pages long.

A model-independent search for low-mass resonances decaying into pairs of oppositely charged muons is presented. The analysis uses proton-proton collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb−1, recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider between 2015 and 2018.
The search targets hypothetical dimuon resonances in the invariant mass range from 35 GeV to 75 GeV. The modelling of this mass region is particularly challenging for conventional analytic background parameterisations. To address this, a Gaussian process regression technique is used to model the background. 
The dimuon mass spectrum is analysed for potential signals, and no statistically significant excess is observed. Upper limits at the 95% confidence level are set on the fiducial production cross-section of new resonances decaying promptly into muons, ranging from 20 fb to 110 fb, depending on the resonance mass. These results are further interpreted in the context of dark-photon and dark-matter-mediator models, leading to new constraints on their parameter spaces.
ATLAS Collaboration, "Search for dimuon resonance in the 35 to 75 GeV mass range using 140 fb−1 of 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector" arXiv:2601.21361 (February 2, 2026) (44 pages in total, author list starting page 27, 9 figures, 3 tables, submitted to JHEP).

The introduction to the body text of the paper notes that:
Searches for low-mass dimuon resonances have been performed by the CMS and LHCb Collaborations, covering mass ranges of 1.1–7.9 GeV, 11.5–75 GeV and 110–200 GeV for CMS, and 30.214–70 GeV for LHCb.

Those searches also came up empty. 

The trickiest mass range to study of those already studied is the 1.1-7.9 GeV mass range which has lots of different hadron resonances that decay in a great many different ways, with each decay having its own probably of occurring, generating substantial background noise, even though the backgrounds are well understood.

The range from 11.5-75 GeV has very little background noise, because it exceeds all but the heaviest hadron resonance masses (with most hadrons predicted to have masses above 11.5 GeV having never been definitively observed even in the numerous and extremely high energy collisions of the LHC), but it is comfortably less than the W boson mass (roughly 80.4 GeV), the Z boson mass (roughly 91.2 GeV), or the Standard Model Higgs boson mass (roughly 125.1 GeV).

In the 110-200 GeV mass range, the only significant backgrounds that can have dimuon decays are single Standard Model Higgs bosons (roughly 125.1 GeV), W boson pairs (roughly 160.8 GeV), and Z boson pairs (roughly 182.4 GeV). 

So, the total observations of dimuon resonances should have three very precisely predictable bumps and can often be confirmed to be background events because additional decay products in addition to the dimuons are observed. The decays of these background processes to particles other than dimuon pairs can also be used to calibrate the expected number of background dimuons for each of these three resonances.

For example, you can estimate the total Higgs boson production from the number of b quark pair decays that are observed by using that to determine how many dimuon decays from Higgs bosons should be expected, since the ratio of the b quark pair branching fraction of Higgs boson decays to the dimuon branching fraction of Higgs boson decays can be theoretically predicted to high precision. And, when you know how many background dimuon events you expect to see from Higgs boson decays, you can subtract that background from the observed number of dimuon events to determine if there is any beyond the Standard Model particle decay signal in the vicinity of the 125.1 GeV Higgs boson mass. 

You can do something similar for W boson pair decays and Z boson pair decays.

The 110-200 GeV mass range range is far more massive than any predicted Standard Model hadrons or any single W or Z boson, however. But, it is also far less than than the combined mass of a Higgs boson pair (roughly 250.2 GeV) or a top quark-antitop quark pair (which is roughly 345 GeV) or a Toponium meson (which is just a bit more massive that an unbound pair of oppositely charged top quarks).

Charged leptons, like those found in dimuon decays (which also only decay in turn to electrons quite slowly compared to other conceivable decay products with their roughly one microsecond mean lifetime, that turns out to be longer from an outside observer's perspective due to special relativity) are easy for the detectors at the LHC to see, so there are few false negatives. 

The rest mass of a dimuon pair is about 0.21 GeV, so even with an invariant mass of 1.1 GeV, the special relativistic kinetic energy of the dimuon pair is about four times its rest mass, so the pair of charged leptons will be traveling at very close to the speed of light, and the closer to the speed of light that the muons are traveling at is, the slower time passes in their rest frame relative to the rest frame of an outside observer. So, from the perspective of an outside observer, the dimuon pair takes much more than the microsecond of a muon at rest to decay.

Furthermore, a lot of false positive dimuon decays would be accompanied by additional detectible decay products that could distinguish those events from the pure dimuon decay signal that the experimenters were looking for in this paper and its companion papers over other invariant mass ranges.

So, these measurements can be quite precise, and can rule out even quite small beyond the Standard Model signals in these mass ranges.

The CMS Paper

In another recent paper, not only does the data on W boson pair production at the LHC confirm the Standard Model, it also strongly suggests that both the experimental and theoretical uncertainties are highly conservative estimates that greatly overstate the true uncertainty (something that is commonly seen in measurements of electroweak phenomena in high energy physics experiments). 

The first measurement is 0.08 sigma away from the predicted value, and the second is 0.10 sigma away from the predicted value. If a prediction and experiment were repeatedly conducted at random and had those uncertainties, the difference would average 1 sigma. So, the results are 10-12 times closer to each other than would be predicted by random chance given the stated uncertainties. It is very unlikely that this particular experiment is such a statistical fluke. 

This particularly unlikely given that this unexpected closeness between the experimentally measured value and the predicted value is seen in a large share of all high energy physics experiments involving electroweak phenomena but not the strong force, which prevents this seemingly fluke result being due to look elsewhere effects that would undermine their global statistical significance.

So, while the stated experimental uncertainties in the total production cross-section are on the order of ± 12%, the actual uncertainties are closer to being on the order of ± 1%. And, while the stated experimental uncertainties in the fiducial production cross-section are on the order of 20%, the actual uncertainties are closer to being on the order of ± 2%.
This analysis presents an observation of the photon-fusion production of W boson pairs using the CMS detector at the LHC. The total cross section of the W+W− production in photon fusion is measured using proton-proton collision data with an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1 collected with the CMS detector in 2016−2018 at a center-of-mass energy of s√ = 13 TeV. Events are selected in the final state with one isolated electron and one isolated muon, and no additional tracks associated with the electron-muon production vertex. 
The total and fiducial production cross sections are 643 +82 −78 fb and 3.96 +0.53 −0.51 fb, respectively, in agreement with the standard model predictions of 631 ± 126 fb and 3.87 ± 0.77 fb. 
This agreement enables stringent constraints to be imposed on anomalous quartic gauge couplings within a dimension-8 effective field theory framework.
CMS Collaboration, "Measurement and effective field theory interpretation of the photon-fusion production cross section of a pair of W bosons in proton-proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV" arXiv:2601.21574 (January 29, 2026).

Friday, September 26, 2025

The ABC Conjecture Has Probably Not Been Proven

Woit reports that a claimed proof of the abc conjecture, a major unproven conjecture in the sub-field of mathematics called number theory (the same sub-field of mathematics that includes Fermat's Last Theorem, which has been proven) is probably flawed:
James Douglas Boyd has recently spent a lot of time interacting with Mochizuki and others at RIMS working in anabelian geometry. Material from interviews he conducted are available here (Mochizuki on IUT) and here (on anabelian geometry at RIMS). He also has written a summary of IUT and of the basic problem with the abc proof. These include detailed comments on the issue pointed out by Scholze-Stix and why this is a significant problem for the proof. I’d be curious to hear from anyone who has looked at this closely about whether they agree with Boyd’s characterization of the situation.

There’s also a lot of material [about] the IUT ideas, independent of the problematic abc proof, and about what Mochizuki and others are now trying to do with these ideas.
What is the abc conjecture?
The abc conjecture (also known as the Oesterlé–Masser conjecture) is a conjecture in number theory that arose out of a discussion of Joseph Oesterlé and David Masser in 1985. It is stated in terms of three positive integers a,b and c (hence the name) that are relatively prime and satisfy a+b=c. The conjecture essentially states that the product of the distinct prime factors of abc cannot often be much smaller than c. A number of famous conjectures and theorems in number theory would follow immediately from the abc conjecture or its versions. Mathematician Dorian Goldfeld described the abc conjecture as "The most important unsolved problem in Diophantine analysis".

The abc conjecture originated as the outcome of attempts by Oesterlé and Masser to understand the Szpiro conjecture about elliptic curves, which involves more geometric structures in its statement than the abc conjecture. The abc conjecture was shown to be equivalent to the modified Szpiro's conjecture.

Various attempts to prove the abc conjecture have been made, but none have gained broad acceptance. Shinichi Mochizuki claimed to have a proof in 2012, but the conjecture is still regarded as unproven by the mainstream mathematical community.

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Non-Linear Cosmology Dynamics

Assuming the data has a Gaussian distribution (i.e. is distributed in a "normal" probability curve) is often reasonable, since this is what happens when data comes from independent simple percentage probability events. And, it is a convenient assumption when it works, because mathematically it is much easier to work with Gaussian distributions than most other probability distributions. But, sometimes reality is more complicated than that and this assumption isn't reasonable. 

The supernova data used to characterize dark energy phenomena isn't Gaussian. 

Trivially, this means that statistical uncertainty estimates based upon Gaussian distributions overestimate the statistical significance of observations in the fat tailed t-distribution. 

Non-trivially, this means that the underlying physics of dark matter phenomena are more mathematically complex than something like Newtonian gravity (often assumed for astronomy purposes as a reasonable approximation of general relativity) or a simple cosmological constant. Simple cosmology models don't match the data. 

This paper estimates dark energy parameters for more complex dark energy models that can fit the data.

Type Ia supernovae have provided fundamental observational data in the discovery of the late acceleration of the expansion of the Universe in cosmology. However, this analysis has relied on the assumption of a Gaussian distribution for the data, a hypothesis that can be challenged with the increasing volume and precision of available supernova data. 
In this work, we rigorously assess this Gaussianity hypothesis and analyze its impact on parameter estimation for dark energy cosmological models. We utilize the Pantheon+ dataset and perform a comprehensive statistical, analysis including the Lilliefors and Jarque-Bera tests, to assess the normality of both the data and model residuals. 
We find that the Gaussianity assumption is untenable and that the redshift distribution is more accurately described by a t-distribution, as indicated by the Kolmogorov Smirnov test. Parameters are estimated for a model incorporating a nonlinear cosmological interaction for the dark sector. The free parameters are estimated using multiple methods, and bootstrap confidence intervals are constructed for them.
Fabiola Arevalo, Luis Firinguetti, Marcos Peña, "On the Gaussian Assumption in the Estimation of Parameters for Dark Energy Models" arXiv:2507.05468 (July 7, 2025).

Monday, June 30, 2025

Criticism Of Numerical Approaches To Indo-European Language Phylogeny

I've long been critical of Gray & Atkinson and the New Zealand school's efforts to do computational linguistics for the Indo-European languages, and specifically questioned Heggarty (2023) when it was released. A big factor in that is mishandling the importance of language contact, which can vary depending upon the relative dominance of the languages in contact and the nature of the words, phonetic values, and grammatical structures involved.
In this paper, we present a brief critical analysis of the data, methodology, and results of the most recent publication on the computational phylogeny of the Indo-European family (Heggarty et al. 2023), comparing them to previous efforts in this area carried out by (roughly) the same team of scholars (informally designated as the “New Zealand school”), as well as concurrent research by scholars belonging to the “Moscow school” of historical linguistics. 
We show that the general quality of the lexical data used as the basis for classification has significantly improved from earlier studies, reflecting a more careful curation process on the part of qualified historical linguists involved in the project; however, there remain serious issues when it comes to marking cognation between different characters, such as failure (in many cases) to distinguish between true cognacy and areal diffusion and the inability to take into account the influence of the so-called derivational drift (independent morphological formations from the same root in languages belonging to different branches)
Considering that both the topological features of the resulting consensus tree and the established datings contradict historical evidence in several major aspects, these shortcomings may partially be responsible for the results. Our principal conclusion is that the correlation between the number of included languages and the size of the list may simply be insufficient for a guaranteed robust topology; either the list should be drastically expanded (not a realistic option for various practical reasons) or the number of compared taxa be reduced, possibly by means of using intermediate reconstructions for ancestral stages instead of multiple languages (the principle advocated by the Moscow school).
Alexei S. Kassian and George Starostin, "Do 'language trees with sampled ancestors' really support a 'hybrid model' for the origin of Indo-European? Thoughts on the most recent attempt at yet another IE phylogeny". 12 (682) Humanities and Social Sciences Communications (May 16, 2025).

From the body text:
Discussion and conclusions

In the previous sections, we have to tried to identify several factors that might have been responsible for the dubious topological and chronological results of Heggarty et al. 2023 experiment, not likely to be accepted by the majority of “mainstream” Indo-European linguists. Unfortunately, it is hard to give a definite answer without extensive tests, since, in many respects, the machine-processed Bayesian analysis remains a “black box”. We did, however, conclude at least that this time around, errors in input data are not a key shortcoming of the study (as was highly likely for such previous IE classifications as published by Gray and Atkinson, 2003; Bouckaert et al. 2012), although failure to identify a certain number of non-transparent areal borrowings and/or to distinguish between innovations shared through common ancestry and those arising independently of one another across different lineages (linguistic homoplasy) may have contributed to the skewed topography.

One additional hypothesis is that the number of characters (170 Swadesh concepts) is simply too low for the given number of taxa (161 lects). From the combinatorial and statistical point of view, it is a trivial consideration that more taxa require more characters for robust classification (see Rama and Wichmann, 2018 for attempts at estimation of optimal dataset size for reliable classification of language taxa). Previous IE classifications by Gray, Atkinson et al. involved fewer taxa and more characters (see Table 1 for the comparison).

Table 1 suggests that the approach maintained and expanded upon in Heggarty et al. 2023 project can actually be a dead-end in classifying large and diversified language families. In general, the more languages are involved in the procedure, the more characters (Swadesh concepts) are required to make the classification sufficiently robust. Such a task, in turn, requires a huge number of man-hours for wordlist compilation and is inevitably accompanied by various errors, partly due to poor lexicographic sources for some languages, and partly due to the human factor. Likewise, expanding the list of concepts would lead us to less and less stable concepts with vague semantic definitions.

Instead of such an “expansionist” approach, a “reductionist” perspective, such as the one adopted by Kassian, Zhivlov et al. (2021), may be preferable, which places more emphasis on preliminary elimination of the noise factor rather than its increase by manually producing intermediate ancestral state reconstructions (produced by means of a transparent and relatively objective procedure). Unfortunately, use of linguistic reconstructions as characters for modern phylogenetic classifications still seems to be frowned upon by many, if not most, scholars involved in such research — in our opinion, an unwarranted bias that hinders progress in this area.

Overall one could say that Heggarty et al. (2023) at the same time represents an important step forward (in its clearly improved attitude to selection and curation of input data) and, unfortunately, a surprising step back in that the resulting IE tree, in many respects, is even less plausible and less likely to find acceptance in mainstream historical linguistics than the trees previously published by Gray & Atkinson (2003) and by Bouckaert et al. (2012). 
Consequently, the paper enhances the already serious risk of discrediting the very idea of the usefulness of formal mathematical methods for the genealogical classification of languages; it is highly likely, for instance, that a “classically trained” historical linguist, knowledgeable in both the diachronic aspects of Indo-European languages and such adjacent disciplines as general history and archaeology, but not particularly well versed in computational methods of classification, will walk away from the paper in question with the overall impression that even the best possible linguistic data may yield radically different results depending on all sorts of “tampering” with the complex parameters of the selected methods — and that the authors have intentionally chosen that particular set of parameters which better suits their already existing pre-conceptions of the history and chronology of the spread of Indo-European languages. 
While we are not necessarily implying that this criticism is true, it at least seems obvious that in a situation of conflict between “classic” and “computational” models of historical linguistics, assuming that the results of the latter automatically override those of the former would be a pseudo-scientific approach; instead, such conflicts should be analyzed and resolved with much more diligence and much deeper analysis than the one presented in Heggarty et al. 2023 study.

Friday, April 5, 2024

A New Cosmology Based Neutrino Mass Estimate

For the flat ΛCDM model with the sum of neutrino mass ∑mν free, combining the DESI and CMB data yields an upper limit ∑mν<0.072 (0.113) eV at 95% confidence for a ∑mν>0 (∑mν>0.059) eV prior. These neutrino-mass constraints are substantially relaxed in models beyond ΛCDM.

This suggests that a near zero lightest neutrino mass is the best fit value, that a one sigma range for the lightest neutrino mass in a normal hierarchy, is about 0-8.7 meV and that a two sigma range for the lightest neutrino mass in a normal hierarchy is about 0-17.3 meV. It also disfavors, but not decisively, an inverted neutrino mass hierarchy.

The merely non-zero Bayesian prior for the sum of the three neutrino masses is contrary to the whole point of using Bayesian statistics, and should just be ignored as meaningless.

Monday, March 13, 2023

Free Floating Planets And Other Astronomy Quick Hits

* There are vast numbers of free floating planets out there, ripped from the stars around which the formed. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will soon reveal many more of them.

While these are ultimately just cold rocks, there are also isolated stars outside any galaxy out there. What if life developed in a place like that?

The possibilities found in the universe are awe inspiring.

* In other astronomy observations, "general relativistic contributions" reduce "the probability that the solar system destabilizes within 5 Gyr by a factor of 60."

* Power laws continue to be fascinating and make random phenomena, while still random, far more ordered than they seem, while also suggesting the kind of processes that give rise to them.

Many astronomical phenomena, including Fast Radio Bursts and Soft Gamma Repeaters, consist of brief distinct aperiodic events. The intervals between these events vary randomly, but there are periods of greater activity, with shorter mean intervals, and of lesser activity, with longer mean intervals. A single dimensionless parameter, the width of a log-normal function fitted to the distribution of waiting times between events, quantifies the variability of the activity. This parameter describes its dynamics in analogy to the critical exponents and universality classes of renormalization group theory. If the distribution of event strengths is a power law, the width of the log-normal fit is independent of the detection threshold and is a robust measure of the dynamics of the phenomenon.
J. I. Katz, "Log-Normal Waiting Time Widths Characterize Dynamics" arXiv:2303.05578 (March 9, 2023) (3 pages).

* Organic molecules that seeded life may have had a head start in interstellar space according to a new preprint: "Protoplanetary disk around a just born young star contains a lot of cosmic dust. especially polycyclic-aromatic-hydrocarbon (PAH), which would become basic component to create biological organics. "

Sunday, January 1, 2023

Breakthrough Made In Numerically Solving Feynman Integrals

Theorists have found a way to solve complex Feynman integrals numerically by reducing them to simple linear algebra.
From Science.

If you don't know what that means, the article at the link does a decent job of explaining it at the undergraduate physics-math-engineering major level.

80% of new publications solving Feynman integrals used these theorists' open source code, which was released a year ago, to do so.

This is especially important for the physics of the strong force (that holds protons and neutrons made up of quarks together) a.k.a. QCD, and efforts to figure out quantum gravity, even though the article refers to the more familiar case of the quantum version of electromagnetism called quantum electrodynamics (QED for short).

Thursday, December 1, 2022

Four New Metric Prefixes Adopted

First uses of prefixes in SI date back to definition of kilogram after the French Revolution at the end of the 18th century. Several more prefixes have gone into use be by the 1947th IUPAC's 14th International Conference of Chemistry, before being officially adopted for the first time in 1960.
The most recent prefixes adopted were ronna-, quetta-, ronto-, and quecto- in 2022, after a proposal from British metrologist Richard J. C. Brown. The large prefixes ronna- and quetta- were adopted in anticipation of needs from data science, and because unofficial prefixes that did not meet SI requirements were already circulating. The small prefixes were added as well even without such a driver in order to maintain symmetry. After these adoptions, all Latin letters have now been used for prefixes or units.

From here.

Friday, November 4, 2022

How Strong Are Observational Constraints On Decaying Dark Matter?

The fundamental problem with using Bayesian statistics, as the authors of the paper below rightly point out, is that your results are only as good as your Bayesian priors. The whole point of Bayesian statistics relative to frequentist statistics, is to leverage information you have before you look at the data to maximize the amount of information you can glean from new data.

Previous studies using the dark matter particle paradigm strongly disfavor decaying dark matter models with mean lifetimes of less than many times the age of the universe, unless it is very short lived and in a dynamic equilibrium that keeps the total amount of dark matter almost precisely constant.

For example, as I noted in an answer at the Physics Stack Exchange:
Assuming a dark matter particle paradigm, according to a pre-print by Yang (2015) subsequently published in Physical Review D, the lower bound on the mean lifetime of dark matter particles is  seconds. This is roughly  years. By comparison the age of the universe is roughly .
The authors make a different Bayesian prior assumption that prior decaying dark matter parameter estimates and concludes that in their best fit model, around 3% of cold dark matter decays just prior to recombination. In the conventional cosmology timeline, "recombination" (which is "the epoch during which charged electrons and protons first became bound to form electrically neutral hydrogen atoms") occurs about 370,000 years after the Big Bang (at a redshift of z =1100).  This implies dark matter with a mean lifetime of about 12.15 billion years, about ten million times shorter than estimates from previous studies. The new Bayesian prior favors metastable, rather than truly stable, dark matter candidates.

Since this is driven by a choice of Bayesian prior, however, it is worth considering why a scientist might be biased towards a prior that leads to more dark matter decays. The most obvious is that searches for decaying dark matter by looking for dark matter decay signatures provides a motivation for an entire subfield of astronomy studies looking for those signatures that would otherwise be ill-motivated since in the standard ΛCDM model dark matter doesn't decay and there are no dark matter decay signatures to be looking for in these astronomy studies.
A large number of studies, all using Bayesian parameter inference from Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, have constrained the presence of a decaying dark matter component. All such studies find a strong preference for either very long-lived or very short-lived dark matter. 
However, in this letter, we demonstrate that this preference is due to parameter volume effects that drive the model towards the standard ΛCDM model, which is known to provide a good fit to most observational data. 
Using profile likelihoods, which are free from volume effects, we instead find that the best-fitting parameters are associated with an intermediate regime where around 3% of cold dark matter decays just prior to recombination. With two additional parameters, the model yields an overall preference over the ΛCDM model of Δχ2≈−2.8 with Planck and BAO and Δχ2≈−7.8 with the SH0ES H0 measurement, while only slightly alleviating the H0 tension. 
Ultimately, our results reveal that decaying dark matter is more viable than previously assumed, and illustrate the dangers of relying exclusively on Bayesian parameter inference when analysing extensions to the ΛCDM model.
Emil Brinch Holm, et al., "Discovering a new well: Decaying dark matter with profile likelihoods" arXiv:2211.01935 (November 3, 2022).