Wednesday, September 23, 2026

More Thoughts On Red River

The first twelve episode cours of the anime Red River a.k.a. Anatolia story, based upon the long hit manga series of the same name finished yesterday, and has prompted me to research the actual history of the period depicted in this historical fiction piece (another twelve episodes are contracted for the fourth quarter of this year).

One of the points highlighted by the series that often gets overlooked in academic research is that: (1) the Hittites, the Mittani kingdom, a Mesopotamian regime, and the Egyptian 18th dynasty, were all contemporaneous, and (2) that these kingdoms meaningfully interacted with each other, exchanging correspondence, diplomats, and brides with each other, and engaging in military conflicts with the intermediate Hittite empire.

At least two royal Egyptian brides were from the Mittani Kingdom in roughly the 14th century BCE when Red River is set.

This is especially notable because, while the everyday commoners in the Mittani Kingdom were Hurrian language speakers (a language associated with the highlands of the Zargos Mountains and to a lesser extent the eastern Anatolian highlands where the possibly related Hattic language was spoken), the Mittani elites in the 1300s BCE spoke a Sanskrit derived Indo-Aryan language (that gave rise, most famously, to the Hindi language of northern India) and worshiped Indo-Aryan gods in their pantheon that became part of the Hindu religion rather than the Avestan language and religion that was starting to emerge in what is now Iran at around this time. (A cultural affiliation that neither the anime or the manga make much of.)

The Indo-Aryan linguistic and religious link to western Iran and connection the Anatolia and Egypt, disappears, however, when the Mittani kingdom falls, for historical reasons that like its brief appearance in the Mittani kingdom have since been lost and are currently unknown.

The Mittani kingdom featured in Red River as a major military adversary of the Hitties, therefore, provides a concrete human, person to person bridge between the culture of South Asian Indo-Europeans and late Bronze Age ancient Egypt: two cultural worlds usually thought of as unrelated and independent of each other despite being contemporaneous.

Actual history is unclear over the famous ancient Egyptian Queen Nefertiti was one of those Mittani brides or not, as the manga and anime assert, because it is a legitimate historical possibility and makes for a good story. But the historicity of the Mittani kingdom providing two royal brides to Egypt in the historical era in which Red River is set is not seriously questioned, nor is the Red River story point that at least one of those marriages was driven to a significant extent by a Mittani expectation of receiving large amounts of gold from Egypt in exchange (although, historically, the Egypt failed to deliver the gold).

Is There Really No Cusp-Core Problem?

I'm highly skeptical of a study that purports to contradict decades of previous observational data whose results had a broad consensus in the field of galaxy dynamics (and which was the main motivator for dark matter particle models such as self-interacting dark matter, warm dark matter, and axion-like particle/fuzzy/ultralight dark matter), with a small "curated" sample. 

I also question comparing  this small curated sample mostly to cold dark matter simulations which themselves are often devised to fit the data rather than having a rigorous physics basis. 

This comes across as cherry picking rather than as the robust observational constraint that the paper claims to be seeking to develop, particularly where there doesn't seem to be a lot of attention given to the uncertainties in their observational data points. 

There seem to be a lot of observation points outside the CDM range in Figure 4 below, and Figure 5 represents only comparisons with simulations, which again, aren't very rigorous reproductions of pure physics and have a strong phenomenological matching component.

Also, while this paper purports to quantify how much energy from stellar feedback is necessary to produce the observed results (which is a worthwhile and important thing to do), its analysis of whether that amount is actually plausible and has a strong physics justification is lacking.

But I'm blogging this paper anyway. That's because I don't want to ignore papers just because they might disagree with my preconceived notions. It is better to engaged and struggle with scholarship that you doubt, and to change your mind if it is sufficiently convincing. 

The images below are the ones described in the arXiv comment from the authors as containing the "main results."
Two of the most prominent small-scale challenges to the cold dark matter (CDM) paradigm are the cusp-core and diversity-of-rotation-curves problems. The former concerns the shallow inner DM density profiles inferred for many galaxies compared with the cusps predicted by collisionless CDM, while the latter concerns the wider range of inner DM densities and rotation curve shapes inferred observationally than hydrodynamical simulations traditionally reproduce. Robust observational constraints on DM core sizes and halo densities are therefore essential for testing both the nature of DM and the impact of galaxy formation processes. 
We analyse the inner DM distribution of a curated sample of 48 gas-rich galaxies and 8 Milky Way gas-poor satellites, spanning 6 orders of magnitude in M∗. We find substantial scatter in DM core sizes and degrees of coreness, with both cuspy and cored haloes occurring over a broad M∗ range. The cores are energetically consistent with stellar feedback, requiring modest supernova energy coupling efficiencies of order 0.1−1%. Comparisons with the NIHAO, FIRE-2, and EDGE simulations reveal broad agreement in the inner DM densities and logarithmic slopes of observed and simulated galaxies. 
The main residual differences concern the steep slopes of some massive simulated galaxies and differences in SHMRs. Using a rotation-curve diversity diagnostic from previous work, we find that extreme discrepancies with simulations are absent from our curated sample and largely attributable to uncertain kinematics or baryonic mass distributions. Within the scope of our analysis, we find no evidence of a systematic inner-density tension between our galaxy sample and current ΛCDM hydrodynamical simulations. Together with the modest energetic requirements for core formation, this substantially alleviates the cusp-core and diversity-of-rotation-curves problems.
Pavel E. Mancera Piña, Justin I. Read, Jorge Sarrato-Alós, Claudia Muni, "Dark matter haloes from dwarf to massive galaxies: no systematic inner-density tension with ΛCDM hydrodynamical simulations" arXiv:2609.25220 (September 21, 2026) (Accepted for publication in A&A).

Thursday, September 17, 2026

T-Rex Was Warm Blooded

A new study of a T-Rex tooth has determined that these dinosaurs were warm blooded, unlike almost all reptiles today (except leatherback sea turtles and Argentine black and white tegus), but like modern birds, which are the sole surviving branch of dinosaurs.
Despite an extensive history of study, quantitative constraints on the thermophysiology of Tyrannosaurus rex remain limited. Here, we derive a thermodynamically based determination of T. rex body temperatures from clumped isotopes in tooth enamel. Measurements of three T. rex teeth from the Late Cretaceous Hell Creek Formation yield a temperature of 36.3 ± 2.5°C (1 SE), comparable to modern endotherms. Teeth of coeval Hell Creek Formation crocodilians yielded temperatures significantly lower than did those of T. rex. Comparison with proxy-derived paleotemperatures and model simulations indicates that T. rex maintained a higher body temperature than its environment. Projected habitat suitability for T. rex based on these results shows that most of the North American paleocontinent, including colder and higher latitudes, were potentially accessible to the species.
Randon J. Flores, "The body temperature of Tyrannosaurus rex" 12(38) Science Advances (September 16, 2026) DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aeb7653.

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Another Fermi-LAT Dead End

The Fermi-LAT collaboration looks for signals of dark matter annihilations. All of its previous potential signals have turned out to have other more plausible explanations than dark matter annihilation. The latest blip in its data set is no different.
A narrow gamma-ray line would be a distinctive signature of dark matter, but its interpretation depends as much on its spatial distribution as on its energy. 
We reanalyze the reported 43 GeV feature in Fermi-LAT observations of Virgo, Fornax, and Ophiuchus. The excess is reproduced in the same public data and survives event-type partitions, a test using data withheld from the original selection, and detector-coordinate permutation tests. Realistic hadronic and inverse-Compton emission is too broad to explain it. A spatial--spectral likelihood analysis restricted to Good Time Intervals and including diffuse backgrounds and catalogued sources finds a broad line-like component. Uniform surface brightness and substructure-enhanced annihilation are preferred, whereas smooth NFW annihilation and a central point source are unlikely explanations. An independent annular analysis agrees: the events associated with the excess extend through much of the virial region. Calibration over 20--70 GeV and five morphologies gives a conditional global significance of approximately 2.7σ, peaking at 44.5 GeV for uniform brightness. This result is conditional on the preselected three-cluster sample. 
The broad morphology is the main obstacle to a dark-matter interpretation. Such an interpretation would require photons to be a leading annihilation channel, annihilation to remain efficient in cold subhalos, and subhalos to supply nearly all the cluster luminosity. Yet a boost consistent with ΛCDM drives the required two-photon cross section into the range most tightly constrained by Galactic-halo line limits. The most likely explanation is a chance fluctuation amplified by analysis and target-selection effects, possibly compounded by residual Galactic diffuse or unresolved-source mismodeling; if celestial, its morphology makes a simple dark-matter interpretation unlikely.
Stefano Profumo, "Right Energy, Wrong Profile: Why the 43 GeV Cluster Line Is Unlikely to Be Dark Matter" arXiv:2609.16425 (September 14, 2026).

Partially Muonic Helium

Muonic Helium is an atom made up of a helium atom nucleus with one electron and one muon, rather than two electrons. It isn't stable (since muons have a half-life of about 10^-6 seconds), but they are long lived enough to study rigorously. Their hyperfine splitting has been measured to a precision of about 0.02 M Hz in a recent experiment and the result was about 0.5 M Hz different from the previous state of the art calculation of the Standard Model expectation for its value (which also had an uncertainty much larger than the experimental value which was on the order of 0.5 M Hz).

A new and more precise calculation was made in a new paper:

Using perturbation theory for the fine-structure constant α and the electron-to-muon mass ratio, we calculated new contributions to the hyperfine structure of the ground state of the muon-electron helium atom. Compared to our previous results, we calculated new corrections in second-order perturbation theory. This calculation reduces the discrepancy between the theoretical value and the new experimental hyperfine structure measurement.
F. A. Martynenko, K. A. Seredina, A. P. Martynenko "Improved calculation of the hyperfine structure of muonic helium" arXiv:2609.17454 (September 15, 2026).

The calculation in the new paper which considers a variety of mostly small refinements to the previous state of the art calculation comes up with a result that is consistent with the old calculation (not hard due to its great uncertainties) which is about 0.05 M HZ away from the experimental result and has an uncertainty on the order of 0.07 M Hz which is a huge improvement on the old calculation. 

The uncertainty in the new experimental result, however, is still several times greater than the uncertainty in the experimental measurement, which is unusual in a calculation that is predominantly a quantum electrodynamics (QED) calculation, a part of particle physics which tends to be ultra-precise. The more complicated make up of a muonic hydrogen atom compared to many other ultra-precise QED calculations is the main source of these uncertainties. 

Glueballs

A first installment on the non-vanilla hadron blogging project that I mentioned in a previous post notes a new review article on the topic. 

Glueballs are always bosons, which means that they can blend with other bosons with the same quantum numbers. As the article below explains:
If glueballs are easily studied in the quenched approximation, they have proved remarkably elusive in practice. This is because, in the real world, quarks are light and dynamical. Because the lowest-lying glueballs carry J^PC = 0++, 2++ and 0−+, all of which are quantum numbers that ordinary isoscalar q¯q mesons also carry, nothing forbids mixing. As a result, any physical resonance in these channels is a superposition of the possible bare resonances[.]
This is one of several reasons that it is hard to precisely predict the mass of glueball resonances even though, naively, it should be simpler than other hadron mass calculations because the only experimentally measured physical constant that enters into the calculation at leading order is the strong force coupling constant. Gluons have no electromagnetic charge, don't decay via the weak force, are themselves massless (although their energy gives rise to an emergent mass for glueballs), and don't need to take into account quark masses at leading order.

The theoretical calculations put essentially all of the potential glueball states in a narrow mass range of about 1.3-5.0 GeV, which is a mass range that is also crowded with a background of all sorts of more conventional hadron resonances, which further complicates the process of determining whether a resonance has a significant glueball component.

But despite these challenges, some experimentally observed resonances have been identified with a probable high scalar glueball or pseudoscalar glueball content, validating a key prediction of quantum chromodynamics (QCD). There are a couple of other possible glueball types that are harder to match to experimentally observed resonances.

Glueballs are colour-singlet bound states built from gluons alone. They are an unavoidable consequence of the non-Abelian structure of Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD), and, in the pure Yang--Mills limit, they are the only physical excitations of the theory. The present article reviews what is known about them. 
After establishing which spin, parity and charge-conjugation quantum numbers two- and three-gluon states can carry, the pure-gauge spectrum is surveyed. Each of the main theoretical approaches and their respective conclusions are briefly presented. They include lattice QCD, constituent-gluon and Coulomb-gauge models, functional Dyson--Schwinger and Bethe--Salpeter equations, holographic models, and QCD sum rules. Particular attention is paid to the scale-setting ambiguity that limits how precisely a quenched glueball mass can be converted into physical units. 
The discussion then turns to full QCD. After discussing the meaning of a glueball assignment in this context, unquenching effects and questions related to glueball--qq¯ mixing are addressed. The large-N(c) counting that underpins the mixing picture, as well as mass-matrix and effective-Lagrangian treatments of mixing are presented. The selection rules and dynamical mechanisms that shape glueball decays are also discussed. 
The gluon-rich production mechanisms used experimentally are finally reviewed. The candidates are assessed sector by sector: f(0)(1370)/f(0)(1500)/f(0)(1710) and the competing interpretations of the scalar sector, η(1405)/η(1475) and X(2370) in the pseudoscalar sector, the crowded tensor region, and the essentially unexplored C=−1 sector and its connection to the Odderon. 
Outlooks on the programmes that could help in validating some of these candidates or identifying others are reviewed as a conclusion.
Cyrille Chevalier, Vincent Mathieu, "Glueballs: hadrons without quarks" arXiv:2609.16790 (September 15, 2026) (Submission to Encyclopedia of Nuclear Physics (Elsevier)).

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Inferred Dark Matter Cores Are Indifferent To Baryonic Physics

Lots of dark matter models of galaxies rely on baryonic feedback (i.e. influence from ordinary matter) to account for its dark matter halo distributions. But a new paper states that the inferred core of a dark matter distribution over many galaxies is indifferent to the distribution of baryonic matter, which undermines this approach.
We present the first dark matter density profile derived directly from James Webb Space Telescope JADES Data Release~3 NIRSpec observations of N=587 galaxies spanning the cosmic noon epoch 1.5 ≤ z ≤ 3.5. From each NIRSpec G235M/G395M spectrum we extract the Hα emission-line velocity dispersion σha, stack galaxies in four redshift bins of Δz=0.5, and reconstruct representative group rotation curves within the General Theory of Relativity. Fitting the four-parameter modified exponential model and deriving the exact GTR energy density, we reduce the profile to a compact [2/3] Padé approximant with all coefficients determined in closed form from JWST observations. The profile is cusp-free, fully analytic, and redshift-dependent. Energy conditions, causality, and orbital stability are all satisfied. Most strikingly, the central density ρ(0) varies by less than 15% across z=1.5--3.5 despite a 35% decline in the asymptotic rotation velocity, revealing a universal dark matter core saturation density at cosmic noon decoupled from baryonic evolution.
Aritra Sanyal, Farook Rahaman "The New Dark Matter Density Profile from JWST JADES Galaxies" arXiv:2609.14071 (September 12, 2026).

Another paper also looks at inferred dark matter halo distributions, and, yet again (confirming perhaps dozens, if not hundreds, of previous papers), the distributions are not a good fit to the theoretically mandated NFW distribution for collisionless dark matter which is widely used by astrophysicists nonetheless.
We fit the circular velocity data, derived from weak lensing observations of isolated galaxies selected from the KiDS survey in four baryonic mass bins, using three different dark matter profiles. These include NFW, Burkert, and pseudo-isothermal profile. We find that the NFW and Burkert profiles cannot adequately fit the circular velocity data for all the four baryonic mass bins, whereas only the pseudo-isothermal profile can fit the data for all the four bins.
Sri Devaki Meduri, Shantanu Desai, "A comprehensive assessment of weak-lensing inferred circular velocity profiles of isolated galaxies" arXiv:2609.14085 (September 12, 2026).

See also, again undermining the baryonic feedback solution to the core-cusp problem of cold dark matter particle theories, this paper:
Baryonic feedback in hydrodynamical simulations is typically invoked to alleviate the core--cusp problem in dwarf galaxies. Yet baryonic processes also induce adiabatic contraction of dark matter, producing overly steep density profiles and excessively high dark matter fractions in the inner regions of massive galaxies. The dark matter distribution of galaxies across a wide stellar-mass range is therefore a critical test for such simulations, but a comprehensive benchmark has remained absent. 
Here, we consistently measure the dark matter distribution from galaxy centres out to radii of 20--50 kpc for 136 nearby galaxies that together span the local mass--size relation over the stellar mass interval 10^9 -10^11.5 M⊙. We identify central regions with lower dark matter densities relative to ΛCDM simulation expectations---whose extent grows from about 10 kpc to >50 kpc as stellar mass increases from 10^10M⊙ to 10^11.5M⊙. Although their physical origin remains unclear, these low--dark matter regions are clearly indicated by the data. Our results provide an important observational benchmark for future hydrodynamical simulations that explore alternative dark matter models and feedback processes.
Yu Lei, et al., "Lower central dark matter densities in nearby galaxies than predicted by simulations" arXiv:2609.16740 (September 15, 2026) (Accepted in principle by Nature Astronomy).

Thursday, September 10, 2026

Neutrinoless Quadruple Beta Decay

While detection of neutrinoless double beta decay is a sign that neutrinos are Majorana particles, neutrinoless quadruple beta decay in the absence of neutrinoless double beta decay is a sign that neutrinos have Dirac mass. So far, neither form of decay has been observed.
The observation of neutrinoless quadruple beta decay (0ν4β) in the absence of neutrinoless double beta decay (0ν2β) has been argued to provide a strong indication that neutrinos are Dirac particles. We report a search for 0ν4β decay of 136Xe using a total 136Xe exposure of 148.4 kg⋅yr, collected during the commissioning and the first science runs of the PandaX-4T experiment. No significant excess of events over the background is observed. A lower limit on the 0ν4β decay half-life of 136Xe is set at 6.01 x 10^24 yr at the 90% confidence level. This result establishes the most stringent constraint on this process in xenon, demonstrating the unique capability of the PandaX-4T detector in probing lepton number violation and shedding light on the fundamental nature of neutrinos.
PandaX Collaboration, "Search for neutrinoless quadruple beta decay of 136Xe in PandaX-4T detector" arXiv:2609.10048 (September 9, 2026).

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

A Heart Warming Math Story

A 92 year old retired math professor (a woman), and a 15 year old girl, who both live in the same neighborhood in Manhattan, solve an important unsolved problem in the topology of knot theory together (via Not Even Wrong which links to the New York Times, the article that they published about their discovery, and Scientific American). 

Read the whole thing, it is not very amenable to being summarized.

Hadron Physics To Do

One of my long-standing to dos for a blog post, which keeps getting put off because it is a pretty big project, is to survey the current state of the literature regarding hadron and/or hadron molecule resonances that aren't simple pseudo-scalar valance quark-antiquark, and simple three valance quark baryons, with u, d, s, c, and b valance quarks.

These include scalar mesons, axial-vector mesons, tetraquarks, pentaquarks, hexaquarks (if any), quarkonia, toponium, glueballs, mixed/blended meson resonances, glueball-quark hybrids, hadron molecules, excited hadron resonances, and other XYZ resonances. 

There are also "leptonic atoms" which substitute positively charged leptons for protons in an atomic nucleus and are bound by quantum electrodynamics (i.e. by electromagnetism) rather than by the strong force, that probably belong in the same discussion (and generally have a mass of less than 4 GeV).

As a prelude, the big bottom line is that there is not a global solution, really, even to any large group of unclassified resonances. Each resonance has to be figured out on its own. It is sometimes quite an epic effort to discriminate between plausible explanations of their structure. 

But there is also no BSM physics. QCD can explain it, but you have to be open to more involved hadron and hadron molecule structures than the vanilla mesons and baryons display. Thus, we are slowly and painfully, but inexorably, reaching a point where essentially all resonances have a Standard Model explanation.

Also, except for toponium, this highly sophisticated analysis and classification of hadron resonances, while it requires lots of data points, doesn't require the extreme high energies of the 13-14 TeV LHC (Large Hadron Collider). 

Generally speaking, all hadron resonances are somewhere between 135 MeV (the lightest pion) and about 30 GeV (a hypothetical six b quark hexaquark), and the lower middle part of this range is very crowded with all sorts of resonances. This is comfortably below the energy scale of even a W or Z or Higgs boson, and is also below the energy scale of a top quark-antitop quark pair. 

Maybe a post just spelling out the possibilities would be a good prelude to a post putting forth the leading theories about which resonances are most likely matches to which possibilities.

Where Do Grammatical Inflections Come From?

The maxim "today's morphology is yesterday's syntax," coined by linguist Thomas Givon, means that grammatical word endings and affixes (morphology) evolve over time from separate, independent words once used together in phrases and sentences (syntax).

Via Language Log

Vaguely related: Some karaoke machines display words sung with almost no gap between them as a single word (German style), which indeed does help in getting the phrasing of the words in a song that you don't know very well right. 

Monday, September 7, 2026

The SM Expectation For Higgs Boson Pair Production

A new study makes a state of the art prediction of the Higgs boson pair production rate from gluon fusion in the Standard Model. 

Some day when Higgs boson pair production experiments are about 1000 times more precise than they are today, this prediction can be compared to the experimental data, which is one way to determine is the Higgs boson self-coupling is consistent with the Standard Model prediction or if it instead has a value more consistent with a beyond the Standard Model value. 

Gluon fusion is one of the main mechanisms by which Higgs bosons and Higgs boson pairs are created, and combined with Standard Model predictions for the other possible mechanisms, can be compared to the actual experimentally observed rates of Higgs boson pair production at particle collider experiments.

Despite the lengths of many authors go to in order to make the calculation that considers all sorts of higher order corrections, however, the uncertainties are still large. 

But the experimental measurements currently aren't any better. They show that the actual rate of Higgs boson pair production is merely less than 2.4 times the Standard Model expectation (i.e. less than about 87.3 fb) with a 95% confidence interval. Higgs boson pair production rates are 0.06% of the overall Higgs boson production. In the Standard Model, Higgs boson pair production predominantly (90%) comes from the gluon fusion mechanism that the new study calculates considering all feasible to calculate factors.

Total Higgs boson production at 13 TeV is about 55.6 pb (+6% -8% uncertainties at one sigma) of which 48.4 (87% of the total) comes from gluon fusion with the remaining 7.2 pb coming from six other main production mechanisms. Higgs boson pair production at 13 TeV using a gluon fusion rate of 33 fb is 36.36 fb, of which 3.36 fb come from five other main non-gluon fusion production mechanisms. And, 1 picobarn (pb) = 1,000 femtobarns (fb).

This study (see below) concludes that double Higgs boson pair production at 13 TeV from gluon fusion is actually 30.4 fb (but subject to a roughly + 10% -23% uncertainty, so its is consistent with the earlier less exhaustively calculated result quoted in the Particle Data Group review below the fold which has roughly the same uncertainty on a percentage basis; the new result has a central value which is about 8% smaller than the old one). A ± 0.2 GeV change in the Higgs boson mass from 125.0 GeV shifts the predicted value by only about + 0.3% (if it is lighter) - 0.4% (if it is heavier), so the gluon fusion Higgs boson pair production rate isn't very sensitive to tweaks to the Higgs boson mass within the current range of uncertainty, but is probably a little bit less than 30.4 fb.

The paper and its abstract are as follows:

In this contribution, the higher-order QCD and electroweak corrections to Standard Model Higgs boson pair production via the gluon-fusion mechanism, gg→hh, are summarized and the different sources of theoretical uncertainty are assessed. The discussion includes finite top quark mass effects, matching to parton showers, approximate NNLO and N3LO QCD corrections, NLO electroweak effects, and uncertainties associated with the top quark mass scheme and perturbative scale choices. In addition, we provide an updated state-of-the-art recommendation for the inclusive gluon-fusion Higgs boson pair production cross section and the corresponding Higgs boson pair invariant-mass distribution.
Ajjath A H, et al., "Higgs Boson Pair Production via Gluon Fusion: Higher-Order Corrections and Theoretical Uncertainties" arXiv:2609.04868 (September 4, 2026) (Contribution to CERN Report 5 approved by LHC Higgs Working Group, Working Group 4 Report number LHCHWG-2026-010).

It concludes that:

Notably, while this prediction is sensitive to the Higgs boson mass, it is not sensitive enough to meaningfully distinguish Higgs boson masses experimentally because the differences due to the Higgs boson mass are smaller than the uncertainty in the prediction.

The conclusion explains:

This report has summarized the current status of precision predictions for Standard Model Higgs boson pair production via gluon fusion. The discussion brings together NLO QCD calculations with full top quark mass dependence, approximate NNLO QCD predictions, N3LO QCD corrections and soft-gluon resummation, NLO electroweak corrections, and details the main sources of theoretical uncertainty entering the theoretical prediction. 

The final recommendations provide state-of-the-art SM reference predictions for phenomenological studies and LHC analyses. They combine higher-order QCD (exact NLO, approximate NNLO and N3LO + N3LL) and EW (NLO) corrections, together with a full uncertainty budget. The combined inclusive cross sections, including the dominant uncertainty associated with the top-quark mass scheme, are collected in Table 12, while their dependence on the Higgs-boson mass is given in Table 13. Additionally we provide differential distributions in m(hh) (Section 7.5), along with corresponding K-factors from the higher-order calculations. These numbers should be used as the definitive predictions of this report, superseding the intermediate results shown in the preceding sections where different input parameters or PDF choices are used. It is worth noting that while the present work does not reduce the overall uncertainty with respect to the previous recommendation, its central prediction includes N3LO+N3LL QCD corrections in the HTL, NLO electroweak effects and updated PDF sets, and should therefore provide a more accurate reference value. 

Further improvements in the SM prediction will come from reducing uncertainties associated with finite top quark mass effects and mass-scheme choice, extending fully differential predictions with consistently combined higher-order QCD and electroweak effects, and updating the recommendations as parton distributions and input parameters evolve.

Background from the Particle Data Group (with somewhat icky formatting) appears below the fold. 

Thursday, September 3, 2026

Layers Of Language and Culture In West Eurasia (An Overview)

A useful way to think about the history and pre-history of Europe and West Asia since the Last Glacial Maximum is to frame it as a matter of techno-linguistic-cultural waves and layers.

The earliest layer is that of European, Levantine, and Caucasian hunter-gatherers, who are quite distinct and segregated populations from each other and not merely gradual clines of different degrees of genetic admixture. Prior to the Neolithic Revolution, Caucasian hunter-gathers and Levantine hunter-gathers were as distinctively different from each other (or more so) than an Irishman is from a man in China today, at a distance of a few hundred miles from each other or less, and while there was admixture during and after the Fertile Crescent Neolithic Revolution, the populations remained very genetically distinct until the Bronze Age, and remain distinguishable, genetically, even today.

Hunter-gather cultures in Anatolia and the Levant are just on the verge of transitioning to becoming Neolithic farmer cultures in sites like Göbekli Tepe and signs of proto-farming in the Levant, when the Younger Dryas climate event hits and postpones that breakthrough for a few thousand years after these false starts, until you get the Fertile Crescent Neolithic revolution.

The Fertile Crescent Neolithic Revolution collects crops and animals, which are native to different parts of the Fertile Crescent, to domesticate and then combined them into a Fertile Crescent Neolithic package over a few centuries (that was tweaked somewhat with a few more domesticated plants and animals in each direction it expanded , like the donkey added in Egypt and a few more crops in Greece and the Balkans), but still not fully merging ethnically (and probably not linguistically either) and instead remaining ethnically distinct first farmer cultures and populations.

The group of first farmers derived from an ethnicity known in ancient DNA circles as Caucasian hunter-gatherers heads east to bring herding and farming into West Asia. 

The group of first farmers in the Levant heads south to bring herding and farming into Egypt, Ethiopia, and the rest of North Africa. This branch can be associated with the Afro-Asiatic languages, although whether the Afro-Asiatic languages originated in the Neolithic Levant, or were a back reaction from some Northeast African hunter-gatherer language that dominated culturally over the original Levantine farmers and then expanded back to North Africa and the Levant from perhaps Ethiopia or upper Egypt, is hard to know.

The group of first farmers in Western Anatolia expands in two waves that split off from the same source West into Europe: the Linear Pottery Neolithic (LBK) farmers more or less to the north along central and eastern Europe's great rivers, and the Cardial Pottery (CP) farmers more or less along the northern coast of the Mediterranean. The archaeological record also suggest that the LBK farmers in turn had a fairly basal split into two distinct branches with different material culture traditions. Probably each of the three major components of the Western Anatolian first farmer traditions spoke different, related languages within a Western Anatolian first farmer language family.

As these first farmers expanded into the more agriculturally suitable areas that they encountered, they did so primarily as families that largely replaced the much more thinly populated existing hunter-gather populations (in many cases, the population density of farmers was as much as a hundred times greater than the hunter-gathers who had preceded them in the area and the farmers were also much more prone to stand their ground to protect their crops than to migrate away although early herders were more flexible and hunter-gathers transitioned to herding more easily than they transitioned to farming), although a small number of locals were integrated into each expanding first farmer population, mostly women taken as brides by first farmer men.

In most of Europe, societies in cultural continuity with these first farmers start to collapse. Maybe its due to unsustainable agricultural practices, maybe its due to natural climate changes. In the earlier stages of this decline, there is some introgression of people who were part of remaining European hunter-gather cultures (sometimes partially adopting herding), who had continued to persist in places unsuitable for Neolithic farming, mostly women, and some first farmer communities revert to herding and hunting and gathering almost entirely, largely abandoning farming.

A few places, like Sumerian, Egyptian, and highlands West Asian societies, that were some of the earliest adopters of the Fertile Crescent Neolithic Revolution start to innovate and adopt early metallurgy, proto-writing or a true written language, and larger scale political and social organizations with kings and high priests who are more than just chiefs and shamans of small tribes or bands. They ran kingdoms and established full fledged bureaucratically organized religious institutions.

The ergative language speaking linguistic groups of the highlands of Anatolia, the Zargos mountains, and the Caucasus mountains, and of Mesopotamia constitute one group of early metal age societies which emerged in specific communities that used their technological advantages of conquer societies that were stuck in the Neolithic farming era and didn't adopt as fast. These specific communities probably emerged from an ergative language first farmer society. 

The Ancient Egyptians were another early adopter of metal age technologies whose military, economic, and cultural influence spread its non-ergative language Afro-Asiatic substrate across an ergative language first farmer substrate that extended, at least, to parts of North Africa, either via the Southern coast of the Mediterranean, or via Iberia.

The Harappan culture in the Indus River Valley and Northeast India is a third early adopter of technological advances of Copper Age technology that manages, somehow, to become dominant with much division or warfare.

Meanwhile, Pontic Caspian steppe hunter-gathers who had adopted herding and domesticated the horse, and made advances in making practical use of simple animal pulled wheeled vehicles enjoyed a fruitful synthesis with nearby West Anatolian derived first farmers from the LBK branch of their expansion into Europe, probably in Sredny Stog, that gave rise to the first proto-Indo-Europeans. Maybe the farmers had early metallurgy already, maybe the herders borrowed it from neighboring societies like the Caucasians, or maybe it arose independently not long after the synthesis that created proto-Indo-European society. But, the Indo-Europeans were already a society of Bronze Age horsemen and charioteers before their main expansion. One of the earliest expansions from this PIE core is east into the Tarim Basin where they become the Tocharians.

When a large area arid climate event strikes West and South Eurasia from Ireland to the Middle East and North Africa to Harappan territory in South Asia, in a time frame that peaks around 2500 BCE to 1500 BCE with climate leading its impacts on the affected societies, societies that were still Neolithic farming societies or were less advanced entirely collapse, while societies that had advanced to the copper age or very early Bronze Age are weakened and vulnerable to conquest, but don't actually collapse.

Indo-Europeans expand in all directions into the vacuum as the climate event strains existing cultures. In most places that had not reached the metal age when this happened and had almost fully collapsed, the Indo-Europeans almost fully wiped out existing hunter-gather and first farmer men, while assimilating some of the women from the existing culture, in patriarchal clans. This was the story for the Corded Ware Culture, more or less in central and eastern Europe, and the story of the Bell Beaker culture invaders of Great Britain and Ireland.

In places where early metal age cultures were still standing and just weakened when they arrived, like the Harappan culture of South Asia that gave rise to Sanskrit speaking Indo-Aryan society (that briefly extended as far as the Mittani empire at the Hittite Empire's border, before it was replaced by the Indo-Iranian Zoroastrian culture), the Hattic culture of Anatolia which came to be ruled by the Hittites, and the Aegean (where they conquered the Greeks and Hattic-related Minoans but adopted considerable parts of local language and culture), and Basque Country (it isn't entirely clear if this is a first farmer society remnant or if it was a distant and first farmer substrate influenced far outpost of early metal aged culture, probably the latter), there was more give and take, with a greater substrate influence on the conqueror's language through substrate influence, on the conqueror's religious beliefs and identity, and other deep rooted aspects of local culture (like Harappan curry). Isolating geography in Sardinia, and in the highlands of the Italian Peninsula's Etruscans and the Alpine kin, and in the highlands of Basque country (possibly assisted by its cluster of RH negative blood types) resisted longer and were changed less by the Indo-Europeans, although most ultimately fell to them, aided by somewhat less collapsed societies with somewhat more advanced early metal aged cultures (and by adopting technologies from the Indo-Europeans who sought to conquer them).

Indo-European expansion wasn't unchecked, however. The Afro-Asiatic cultures of the Levant and Egypt managed to resist them as did Mesopotamia, which Afro-Asiatic people had conquered from the Sumerians before this collapse. Geography prevented them from expanding past the Tarim Basin into East Asia and Central Asia. In Europe's far Northeast, as far as what is now Finland, northern Sweden, the Baltic states, and much of what is now Russia, as well as (much later) Hungary, Uralic people arrived as a post-Indo-European layer, or arrived to replace hunter-gather-fishing populations that the Indo-Europeans either never reached or didn't manage to hold onto for very long.

Then, another climate event triggered Bronze Age collapse around 1200 BCE. This only slightly unsettles the division of the world between Indo-European societies and Afro-Asiatic ones, for example, with the migration of Mycenaean Greek sea people into the Southern Levant after being fended off by more robust Egypt, to become the Philistines.

During Bronze Age collapse and its immediate aftermath, the waves of migration and war in Europe and West Asia become intramural fights between Indo-European people beyond the standoff between the Bell Beaker Indo-Europeans in Western Europe (known for their archery) and their successors, and the Corded Ware people to their east in Europe and their successors (know for their battle axes), whose respective territories shifted only a little (most notably midway through the Bronze Age in the vicinity of Denmark) from about 2000 BCE to 1200 BCE.

As Bronze Age collapse struck, Anatolian Indo-Europeans and Greek Indo-Europeans fought the Trojan War until it all collapsed into the Greek Dark Ages. Around that time that the Greek dark ages ended and classical Greek civilization started to emerge, Celtic peoples expanded from somewhere around Czechia as far west as Ireland and as far southeast as Anatolia. As Europe and West Asia emerged from the dark ages, the Iron Age technologies that the Hittites has managed to prevent its neighbors from acquiring prior to Bronze Age collapse, became ubiquitous. Iron wasn't actually a superior metal for weapons to bronze, but it was easier to mass produce and almost as good (and in isolated communities in what is now Iran, high quality steel far superior to bronze or iron was invented, around 1000 BCE, only to be lost centuries later before it could be adopted by the Roman Empire or the Islamic Empire).

The Iron Age was followed by Greco-Roman classical civilization eventually leading to Greek conquests of West Asia up to India (only to ultimately lose most of this territory one way or another in several big installments), and to the Roman Empire at its peak that reached Hadrian's Wall in Britain, Romania, the Levant, Egypt, North Africa, Southern Europe, and Anatolia. This lasted until another climate event led to the Western Roman Empire's collapse. A century after Rome collapsed, the Islamic empire expanded into vast swaths of territory in North Africa, Southwest and West Asia, Iberia, Malta, and the Balkans and beyond into South Asia and Southeast Asia and the Sahel, while the Christian Byzantine empire held on for several more centuries as it gradually lost territory, until it fell entirely to what had morphed in several rounds of Islamic regime changes into an Ottoman Empire that absorbed and coopted into Islam, Turkic invaders with origins in Southeast Asia, with the little interruption of the Mongol Empire along the way.

While the Islamic empire expanded, non-Muslim Europe collapsed with Germanic, Slavic, and Uralic tribes roaming about Europe in the migration period (giving rise to Hungary whose Magyar rulers swiftly converted from being pagans to Christians), Charlemagne and feudal lords running Europe in a fig leaf of a Holy Roman Empire under the Pope and launching several largely futile Crusades into the Levant, Viking raiders plundered Europe and briefly settled in North American only to collapse there and retreat (one branch of Vikings became the founding dynasty of and rulers of Russia's slavs), the Mongol Empire spanning from Persia to Korea before collapsing in the 13th century, multiple waves of the Black Plague ravaging Europe from its source in the east, missionaries re-Christianizing Europe from Ireland to the east until the last pagans of Europe are in the Urals and almost everyone else has nominally become Catholic by the late 11th century CE, and monastic orders doing what they could to preserve classical civilization for the thousand years of the Middle Ages that ended with the Columbian Exchange as Iberians and other Europeans colonized the Americas, with the Renaissance that finally restored classical Roman levels of technology and social order, with the Protestant Reformation, and with the end of the Reconquest of Iberia from the Moors. I'll end this survey with the start of this early modern period around 1500 CE.

Now, I'm writing this post from memory, which is partially why I've left out some things, particularly in West Asia and the details in far Northeast Europe and North Asia. I've omitted the stories of the Armenians, the Kurds, and the Druze. I skipped the process by which the Sumerian language was replaced by a succession of Semitic languages in Southwest Asia and Mesopotamia's trade ties to the Indus Valley Civilization and the eastern coast of Africa. I haven't adequately covered the history of the Caucuses. I've left out the fairly well understood history of the Jewish people after the fall of the Second Temple around 70 CE and haven't said enough about the Phoenicians and the Punic people. I haven't discussed the rise of Christianity during the Roman Empire or the demise of Zoroastrianism and polytheistic paganism. I haven't explored the connections between the Jewish, Christian and Muslim accounts of Southwest Asia's history through the legendary histories of their holy texts and the historical realities. Nor have I discussed why the Bronze Age is so full of what I call "legendary history" that is a mix of fiction and fact in purportedly fictional accounts that is so predominant across cultures in this era. I've left out the expansion around the time of the domestication of the camel that gave rise to the Berber people. I've barely touched on the repopulation of Europe by hunter-gathers from basically three refuges after the Last Glacial Maximum. I haven't mentioned the Silk Road or the history of Central Asia before and after the Mongols. I didn't cover how pottery made its way from the coasts of China and Japan about 16,000 years ago, over thousands of year to produce the transition from the pre-pottery Neolithic in the Levant to the pottery Neolithic of Europe and the Levant, or how the Black Plague got to Europe. I omitted the trans-Saharan slave trade, and Roman, Greek, Egyptian, Anatolian, Germanic and Viking slavery practices.

But the point isn't to cover all of  the details. That would take a book, not a blog post. It is to provide an overarching framework into which the details can fit and be better understood. And, of course, this post only minimally touches upon history and pre-history become its title's West Eurasian scope, even though there was lots going on in the rest of the world which is much less well known. Africa, for example, didn't start to fall decisively behind the rest of the world technologically and economically until perhaps five or six hundred years ago, and it took quite a while before the gaps became as stark as they are today (a process that only really started in earnest around the time of the trans-Atlantic slave trade that started after the time period covered by this post).

Actually, to be honest, I'd started trying to frame the issues presented by the origins, cultures, and linguistic history of Greece, West Asia and Southwest Asia up through the early Iron Age, and ended up going a little further afield with a forward outlining Western Civilization from its earliest roots which would be about ten pages in print. I did touch on that and frame it in a narrative (admittedly one that is sometimes hotly contested by legitimate academics even in the present). But, I can refocus on that in a more detailed and referenced manner in a future post. 

Handedness

 

From here.

Wednesday, September 2, 2026

A Single Possible Direct Dark Matter Detection


The Lux-Zepplin direct dark matter experiment has detected a single event that could be a dark matter particle (see also here). But given the immense amount of searching which drives up look elsewhere effects and the myriad other possible explanations for a single outlier data point, it is not a definitive dark matter detection yet.

From my posts on this at the link:

With this detector does that mean that the dark matter candidate would interact with the weak nuclear force?
Or some novel fifth force that has a cross-section of interaction much weaker (by factors of millions or billions or so) than the SM weak force.

The DM cross-section of interaction of atomic nuclei (and hence the weak force charge of DM particles) would have to be profoundly weaker than that of neutrinos if it is a weak force interaction, which would be surprising since every SM particle with weak force interactions has the same weak force charge.

What would even be a standard for credible detection here? 3 events? 10? When would they start calling Stockholm?
Not sure, does the paper say what statistical significance this event has?

The paper estimates the global statistical significance at 2.6 sigma, with a local statistical significance of up to 3.4 sigma. But the number of events probably isn't sufficient to determine the significance. It also depends, in part, about the details of each event and how far those details are from the expected background events on the chart in the OP. 

But given the amount of searching that has been done with multiple direct dark matter detection experiments that are all roughly similar to each other, the significance after the look elsewhere effect should be much lower than the local statistical significance.

You'd probably need a local significance of something like 10 sigma to get a global significance that meets the 5 sigma discovery threshold. Also, it isn't just 5 sigma, you also need a theoretical framework to attach the result to and replication, to be a true discovery.

So, you'd need (1) to do a lot of analysis with outside peer reviewers to rule out extremely faint backgrounds that weren't considered in the original analysis or other possible non-DM sources of this outlier data point, and (2) you'd need another experiment in addition to LZ to see it.

But, this makes funding direct dark matter detection experiments similar to LZ for the purpose of replicating this result and tuned to the parameters space where this was seen a no brainer.

Another issue is that even if the event is some non-SM particle, it doesn't necessarily follow that it is a significant component of DM.

Direct DM experiments are based upon the assumptions that the total DM mass flux and DM particle momentum can be pretty well determined from Milky Way dynamics, so you are looking at a parameter space in which DM particle mass and DM particle cross-section of interaction with nucleons trade off against each other for any given result.

This outlier data point, if it is real, points to a fairly high DM particle mass (some arXiv phenomenology papers are speculating in the 1 TeV order of magnitude). But anything much above 10 keV of mass presents real problems as a major component of DM since inferred DM distributions which are "cored" rather than "cuspy" suggest that you need much smaller DM masses to reduce the core-cusp problem, and plausible self-interaction strengths of heavy DM particles still don't solve that problem in simulations.

So, even if it is DM, it might be a type of DM particle that makes up, for example, only 1% of DM, as a DM analog to something like carbon atoms in interstellar space, while the predominant component of particle DM, as a DM analog of something like hydrogen atoms, might be too light for LZ to detect significantly due to neutrino backgrounds.

Analysis of this result in other preprints include:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.01475
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.01504
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.01592
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02608
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02775
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02868
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02823
https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02807

If there are multiple kinds of DM particles and this is only a rare and heavy member of that set, this implies that the cross-section of interaction can be much higher (and thus, much closer to the neutrino-nucleon cross section of interaction). This is because the cross-section of interaction calculations assume that there is only one kind of DM particle, so that the actual events recorded comes from interactions with 100% of the DM flux through LZ. But if this assumption is wrong and only, for example, 1% of DM particles are massive enough for LZ to detect, then the actual cross-section of interaction implied by a given number of events is 100 times greater in that example.

If DM particles of this mass are extremely rare (the DM analog to uranium or lead, perhaps, making up only one in a million or billion DM particles) within the universe of DM particles, then perhaps the cross-section of interaction could be equivalent to the strength of the weak force interaction of SM particles.

The effective lower bound of DM particle mass that LZ can detect is about 0.2-0.5 GeV, and the signal to noise ratio starts to degrade meaningfully for DM particle masses below 10 GeV. And, there are, to repeat, strong suggestions from the inferred shape of DM distributions, that the predominant share of DM particles (assuming that they exist) should be about 10 keV or less, which is about 20,000 times less massive than DM particles that can give rise to events detected by LZ which are distinguishable from background events, and about 1,000,000 times less massive than DM particles that LZ can detect with maximum efficiency.

My suspicions

I think that this result is either a fluke in the background events (which at 2.6 sigma global significance, a global significance that I suspect is actually overstated, is entirely plausible), or a methodological error.

Even if it is, however, a genuine BSM particle, the one observed seems unlikely to be a DM particle, and particularly unlikely to be a Higgsino, which is what many of the linked papers suggest. A Higgsino is fairly tightly constrained in supersymmetry theories to have properties that this particle is unlikely to have, and might even be possible to rule out with further analysis of this particular data point.

Further, supersymmetry theories are simply not credible as theoretical frameworks in the broader sense for a variety of reasons, even though a Higgsino mass of 1.1 TeV was predicted in 2012 as the mass of a Higgsino that was the sole component of dark matter according to Hall, Lawrence J.; Nomura, Yasunori (2012). "Spread Supersymmetry". Journal of High Energy Physics. 2012: 82. arXiv:1111.4519 doi:10.1007/JHEP01(2012)082

The non-detection of any hint of a Higgsino at the LHC also casts doubt on this hypothesis, although the formal exclusions from the LHC (which is always a bit dicey because it depends on the Higgsino model used and the mass splitting between it and certain other supersymmetric particles) only go up to about 1.025 TeV.

There are also lots of strong reasons from astronomy, as I just scratched the surface of above, to think that either gravity (modified, non-perturbative, otherwise) or a fifth force, rather than dark matter particles make more sense, and that heavy dark matter particles (1 TeV or more particles that are at the fringe of what LZ and other direct detection experiments can be sensitive to), at least as a primary source of dark matter, are among the least observationally favored dark matter particle hypotheses.

This doesn't inherently rule out the possibility of a new fundamental particle, and the spectrum of composite bound quark and gluon structures, except toponium (which has a very distinct signature and set of conditions in which it can be formed) pretty much top out in the low tens of GeV, far below the 1 TeV scale. Toponium is 344-347 GeV, which is still below the TeV scale. The most massive observed atom, Oganesson (element 118), specifically its isotope Oganesson-294, has a mass of only about 274 GeV, which is still well below 1 TeV. A mass of 1 TeV would require a rather large and complex molecule (not hadron molecule, but a normal molecule made up of ordinary chemical elements), so an event like this, if being properly interpreted is not a good fit for any known fundamental particle, any known or possible hadron, any known or plausible future atom or atomic element. So, if there is a real detection of a 1 TeV mass particle, it is very much beyond the Standard Model and new physics. But even if it is real, that doesn't mean that it is an important contributor to dark matter. It could be a BSM particle with nothing meaningful to do with dark matter phenomena.

Indeed, the lack of well-motivated candidates for a 1 TeV particle with a very low cross-section of interaction with nucleons (at least no larger than the weak force coupling), makes this extraordinary claim require extraordinary proof and compels a very hard look for other explanations, especially given its only modest statistical significance so far.